Middle East Focus The Regional and Domestic Elements of Erdoğan's Grand Strategy
Jul 24, 2025
Gönül Tol, a Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute and expert on Turkish politics, dives into the intricacies of Erdoğan's power dynamics. She discusses how the shifting landscape of regional conflicts like the Israel-Iran war and violence in Syria is influencing Turkey's foreign policy. The conversation highlights the complexities of U.S.-Turkey relations, Erdoğan's domestic challenges, and his crumbling relationship with the opposition. Tol also unpacks the implications of Turkey's peace process with the PKK and the future of democracy in the country.
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Turkey-U.S. Relations Under Trump
- President Erdogan expected close cooperation with the Trump administration but substantive progress on key issues like the S-400 system and Syria withdrawal has stalled.
- U.S. support for Syrian Kurdish militias remains a major point of tension in U.S.-Turkey relations.
Changing Turkish Views on U.S. Policy
- Turkey initially welcomed the Trump administration's pragmatic Gulf diplomacy and anti-war stance toward Iran.
- However, U.S. support for Israel's war actions against Iran caused skepticism in Ankara regarding American reliability.
Turkey’s Regional Challenges and Opportunities
- Turkey sees Iran's weakening as an opportunity to expand influence in South Caucasus and Iraq through strategic corridors.
- Yet Ankara worries about a stronger, militarily powerful Israel as it loses leverage over Tel Aviv.
