"We Cannot Exist Without Shipping" Featuring Toni Stojcevski and David Millar, Wärtsilä
Oct 2, 2024
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Join Toni Stojcevski, General Manager of Project Sales & Development at Wärtsilä Marine, and David Millar, Principal of Markets at Wärtsilä Energy, as they dive into the crucial role shipping plays in the global economy. They explore Wärtsilä's innovations in alternative fuels and the complexities of transitioning from bunker fuel to cleaner energy. The urgency for the shipping industry to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 is emphasized, along with the significant investments required and the challenges ahead in navigating effective decarbonization strategies.
The East and Gulf coast dock workers' strike, demanding substantial wage increases and limiting automation, poses significant risks to U.S. container shipments and the economy.
Wärtsilä's commitment to decarbonization by 2050 involves developing flexible engine technologies for alternative fuels amidst rising demand and logistical challenges in the shipping industry.
Deep dives
Impact of the Dock Worker Strike
A significant dock worker strike has commenced on the East and Gulf coasts, involving around 45,000 workers and affecting half of all container shipments in the U.S. This strike marks the first occurrence on the East Coast since 1977, during which it lasted about six weeks. The workers are demanding a 70% wage increase over several years while also aiming to limit port automation, which adds complexity and urgency to the negotiations. The potential economic impact is estimated to be between $1 billion to $5 billion per day, raising concerns over supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures on the U.S. economy.
Geopolitical Tensions Affecting Oil Prices
Recent missile strikes from Iran on Israel have escalated geopolitical tensions and resulted in a notable increase in crude oil prices by approximately $3 per barrel. This situation has created additional uncertainty in the oil markets, which are already grappling with issues related to supply and demand dynamics. Despite the rise in prices, the market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with analysts observing that significant fluctuations can occur based on ongoing developments such as OPEC meetings and global economic activity. The interaction of various geopolitical factors makes it challenging to predict the overall trajectory of crude oil prices in the coming months.
Wärtsilä's Commitment to Decarbonization
Wärtsilä is heavily invested in achieving zero carbon emissions by 2050, a target that is critical given the shipping industry's role in global trade. Current discussions at international meetings aim to shape the guidelines for decarbonization, focusing on clean technologies and alternative fuels to reduce the sector's environmental impact. The shift from traditional fuels to cleaner options has gained momentum over the past years, with an increasing number of vessels being prepared to run on dual fuels, predominantly natural gas. The company's strategy includes the development of flexible engine technologies capable of adapting to future sustainable fuels to meet the 2050 targets.
Future Directions in Energy and Maritime Technology
Wärtsilä is exploring innovative solutions beyond traditional marine engines, such as carbon capture systems for vessels that cannot transition to cleaner fuels. The company anticipates a growth in demand for sustainable fuels like ammonia and methanol, projecting significant shifts in fuel availability and costs by 2030. These changes are expected to influence the shipping industry's adoption of alternative fuels, although the infrastructure for new fuel types poses logistical challenges. Overall, Wärtsilä aims to provide versatile solutions that accommodate not just current energy needs but also evolving regulations and market dynamics in the maritime sector.
Today we were delighted to host Toni Stojcevski, General Manager of Project Sales & Development at Wärtsilä Marine alongside David Millar, Principal of Markets, Legislative, and Regulatory Policy at Wärtsilä Energy. For those of you who aren’t familiar with Wärtsilä, the company is a famous Finnish provider of marine engines and also a large player in onshore power. Toni has served at Wärtsilä for over 20 years ago and specializes in marine engineering and business development, including medium speed combustion engines and alternative fuels. David is an economist who advocates for evidence-based energy policies that prioritize cost-effectiveness and reliability. He holds a Master of Environmental Management from Duke University and previously served as Managing Director of Resource Planning and Procurement Services at Ascend Analytics. We were delighted to connect with David and Toni and talk about Wärtsilä’s unique angles on the world.
In our conversation, we discuss the critical role of shipping in the global economy and Wärtsilä’s efforts to develop solutions that meet emissions targets, including the creation of engines that can use traditional fuels but also natural gas, methanol, ammonia, and hydrogen. Toni shares his insights on the evolution of fuel use in shipping, highlighting the global fleet’s historical reliance on bunker fuel and how that has changed in recent years. Toni emphasizes the complexities and costs associated with transitioning to alternative fuels, as well as the technological challenges with new fuels, notably in fuel supply infrastructure, especially for hydrogen and ammonia. We explore the relative differences in different fuel prices and the impact of larger tank sizes on shipping costs and cargo capacity, whether existing fuels can become more efficient, and examine potential future shipping technologies such as marine batteries and micronuclear power. David provides background on Wärtsilä’s power solutions including gas engines for peaking and balancing generation, the intricacies of using hydrogen as a long-duration storage medium and the infrastructure needed, as well as the cost of generating electricity with Wärtsilä’s engines and how it compares to other generation methods. We also cover the role of modular and efficient energy technologies in reducing costs and risks for utilities and power producers. We circle back with Toni towards the end of the discussion to hit on Wärtsilä’s development of carbon capture technology for vessels unable to switch to new fuels and cover the size and growth of the global merchant shipping fleet. We conclude by asking both David and Toni what they think the shipping and power energy mix might look like in ten years.
For our COBT history buffs, we previously had the opportunity to host Karl Meeusen, Director of Markets, Legislative and Regulatory Policy at Wärtsilä (episode linked here).
Mike Bradley opened the discussion by highlighting three key topics: the East & Gulf Coast dockworkers strike, escalating conflict in the Middle East, and the sharp decline in U.S. natural gas storage surplus. On the dockworkers strike, he noted it was the first one on the East Coast since 1977, with these ports handling half of all U.S. container shipments. Retailers are under pressure as investors assess potential supply chain disruptions during the holiday season and the US Presidential election ramifications of an extended strike. Regarding crude oil, WTI prices rose $3/bbl to $71/bbl due to increasing Middle East tensions following Iran’s missile strike on Israel. Despite this, oil prices have been trading sideways, even with bearish Brent crude setups and news of a large Chinese stimulus plan. The upcoming OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting on October 2nd could bring mor
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