Navigating the Global Shipping Landscape

Today we were delighted to host Toni Stojcevski, General Manager of Project Sales & Development at Wärtsilä Marine alongside David Millar, Principal of Markets, Legislative, and Regulatory Policy at Wärtsilä Energy. For those of you who aren’t familiar with Wärtsilä, the company is a famous Finnish provider of marine engines and also a large player in onshore power. Toni has served at Wärtsilä for over 20 years ago and specializes in marine engineering and business development, including medium speed combustion engines and alternative fuels. David is an economist who advocates for evidence-based energy policies that prioritize cost-effectiveness and reliability. He holds a Master of Environmental Management from Duke University and previously served as Managing Director of Resource Planning and Procurement Services at Ascend Analytics. We were delighted to connect with David and Toni and talk about Wärtsilä’s unique angles on the world. 
 
In our conversation, we discuss the critical role of shipping in the global economy and Wärtsilä’s efforts to develop solutions that meet emissions targets, including the creation of engines that can use traditional fuels but also natural gas, methanol, ammonia, and hydrogen. Toni shares his insights on the evolution of fuel use in shipping, highlighting the global fleet’s historical reliance on bunker fuel and how that has changed in recent years. Toni emphasizes the complexities and costs associated with transitioning to alternative fuels, as well as the technological challenges with new fuels, notably in fuel supply infrastructure, especially for hydrogen and ammonia. We explore the relative differences in different fuel prices and the impact of larger tank sizes on shipping costs and cargo capacity, whether existing fuels can become more efficient, and examine potential future shipping technologies such as marine batteries and micronuclear power. David provides background on Wärtsilä’s power solutions including gas engines for peaking and balancing generation, the intricacies of using hydrogen as a long-duration storage medium and the infrastructure needed, as well as the cost of generating electricity with Wärtsilä’s engines and how it compares to other generation methods. We also cover the role of modular and efficient energy technologies in reducing costs and risks for utilities and power producers. We circle back with Toni towards the end of the discussion to hit on Wärtsilä’s development of carbon capture technology for vessels unable to switch to new fuels and cover the size and growth of the global merchant shipping fleet. We conclude by asking both David and Toni what they think the shipping and power energy mix might look like in ten years.
 
For our COBT history buffs, we previously had the opportunity to host Karl Meeusen, Director of Markets, Legislative and Regulatory Policy at Wärtsilä (episode linked here).
 
Mike Bradley opened the discussion by highlighting three key topics: the East & Gulf Coast dockworkers strike, escalating conflict in the Middle East, and the sharp decline in U.S. natural gas storage surplus. On the dockworkers strike, he noted it was the first one on the East Coast since 1977, with these ports handling half of all U.S. container shipments. Retailers are under pressure as investors assess potential supply chain disruptions during the holiday season and the US Presidential election ramifications of an extended strike. Regarding crude oil, WTI prices rose $3/bbl to $71/bbl due to increasing Middle East tensions following Iran’s missile strike on Israel. Despite this, oil prices have been trading sideways, even with bearish Brent crude setups and news of a large Chinese stimulus plan. The upcoming OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting on October 2nd could bring mor