Election countdown: New Germany, new Europe, new podcast
Jan 17, 2025
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Jana Puglierin, head of ECFR's Berlin office, and Jeremy Cliffe, editorial director at ECFR, delve into the political climate as Germany approaches its federal election. They discuss Friedrich Merz's rising influence in the CDU and the so-called 'Merz Doctrine.' Insights on Germany's foreign policy amid U.S. politics are explored, including reactions to a potential second Trump administration. The conversation also touches on crucial international relations, particularly concerning Russia and Ukraine, and highlights the shifting dynamics in European leadership.
The podcast highlights the urgent need for Germany to reclaim its leadership role in Europe amidst geopolitical shifts and internal political debates.
Friedrich Merz's election campaign emphasizes a return to traditional values while balancing national interests and addressing party divisions over foreign policy.
Deep dives
Germany's Role in Europe
Germany's recent decline in its traditional leadership role within Europe is a significant concern for many analysts. There is a perception that Germany has become inconsistent and sometimes unilateral in its foreign policy decisions, undermining the Franco-German partnership that has historically driven European integration. The podcast highlights the urgency for Germany to reclaim its position as a leader on the European stage amidst rising threats and instability, particularly in the context of America's shifting focus under different administrations. This search for a renewed German identity in Europe is underscored by the internal political debates and factions that complicate a united German stance.
The German Election Dynamics
The upcoming German election is characterized by a notably personalized campaign with multiple candidates vying for the chancellorship, including Friedrich Merz from CDU and Olaf Scholz from SPD. Polls indicate a stable lead for Merz’s CDU, despite frustrations with the previous coalition government's handling of various issues. The short election campaign is expected to heat up with TV debates and public engagements, introducing new dynamics into the potential outcomes and party alliances. The interplay of internal politics, particularly the candidates' varying stances on international relations and electoral strategies, adds complexity to the electoral landscape.
The Mautz Doctrine and Its Implications
Friedrich Merz's worldview, encapsulated in what is referred to as the Mautz Doctrine, emphasizes a return to traditional German values of European and transatlantic partnership, while simultaneously prioritizing national interests. Merz advocates for stronger Franco-German ties and believes in the necessity for a more robust and self-sufficient Germany, particularly in defense and international economic relations. However, there are concerns about his potential to balance these aspirations with Germany's current economic challenges and the divisions within his own party regarding foreign policy. His approach reveals the tension in navigating a path forward for Germany that reconciles its historical commitments with an evolving global landscape.
With just five weeks remaining until the German federal election, Friedrich Merz's CDU is leading in the polls. But significant shifts in geopolitics—and opinion—can occur in weeks and days: and this election will take place in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s inauguration and amid the stagnation of the Franco-German engine. Now, recognising the importance of German leadership in Europe, Searching for Deutschland explores the foreign policy dimensions of Germany’s electoral campaign.
This week MarkLeonard welcomes editorial director and senior policy fellow JeremyCliffe, and ECFR’s Berlin office head and senior policy fellow JanaPuglierin, to discuss their new podcast, and Merz’s foreign and domestic policies. What exactly is the “Merz Doctrine”? How might Merz deal with the second Trump administration? And what are his views on Russia and Ukraine?