The Foreign Affairs Interview
Is the World Ready for the Population Bust?
Jan 2, 2025
Nicholas Eberstadt, a prominent political economist and expert on demographics, joins Kanishk Tharoor to discuss a looming global challenge: the age of depopulation. They delve into the dramatic drop in fertility rates, particularly in places like India and Europe. Eberstadt argues that personal choices, rather than policies, drive these declines. They explore how governments can better manage the implications of shrinking populations, touching on migration, automation, and the balance between individual freedom and societal needs in an evolving world.
34:43
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Quick takeaways
- The world is entering an era of depopulation marked by unprecedented declines in fertility rates across diverse regions, necessitating new societal adaptations.
- Individual choices rather than economic pressures drive fertility rate declines, highlighting the need for nuanced understanding in formulating effective policy responses.
Deep dives
Demographic Shifts and Their Implications
Global fertility rates are declining at an unprecedented rate, with many regions, including historically high-fertility areas, experiencing significant drops, making sub-replacement levels a pressing concern. For instance, Mexico City has seen birth rates drop to below one child per woman, a trend echoed in cities like Kolkata and nations such as Thailand. This widespread decline suggests a fundamental shift away from the previous population explosion towards a state of depopulation, which could begin affecting global demographics as early as 2053. The implications of this demographic transformation are far-reaching, influencing not only societal structures but also the economic and geopolitical landscapes globally.
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