Market risk can be transmitted globally, as evidenced by the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the LTCM debacle.
Assessing growth and inflation variables is crucial in determining interest rate fair value models.
Deep dives
1. Market Risk Transmission and Interest Rate Fair Value Models
Sibage Rajabeg discusses how market risk can be transmitted globally, citing the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the subsequent LTCM debacle. She explains her framework, which includes an assessment of growth and inflation variables to determine interest rate fair value models. Rajabeg also highlights the importance of derivatives market pricing and tracking fund flows in her analysis.
2. Integrity of Market Pricing Signals and Fed's Participation
Rajabeg raises concerns about the integrity of market pricing signals due to the large participation of the Federal Reserve in the market. She explores the potential impact of the Fed's presence on interest rate pricing and discusses the challenges in interpreting market signals amidst the central bank's involvement.
3. Inflation Analysis and Persistent Factors
Rajabeg analyzes the inflation outlook, distinguishing between transitory and persistent factors. She highlights the potential persistence of inflationary pressures in areas such as wages, which could lead to a less market-friendly Fed in 2022. Rajabeg emphasizes the need to closely monitor inflation's progress and potential risks to market stability.
4. Progress in Promoting Women's Career Growth in Finance
Rajabeg shares her perspective on the progress of promoting women's career growth in the financial industry. While recognizing the increased attention and recognition for talented women, she stresses the need for further efforts in retention to ensure women can advance and thrive in the industry.
With a position in rate strategy at Salomon Brothers in the late 1990’s, Subadra Rajappa developed an early appreciation for how market risk can be transmitted from one part of the world to the other through the 1997 Asian FX crisis and the LTCM debacle a year later. Over the course of a career spanning more than 25 years, she’s developed a macro framework that is underpinned by an assessment of growth and inflation variables that help drive interest rate fair value models. Derivative market pricing and fund flows also make their way into her framework. Specifically, Subadra looks at the interest rate vol surface with special attention to the price of out of the money options, and, to track the money, keeps an eye on positioning in futures markets. Our conversation considers key recent events that shape where we are in the monetary policy cycle. In this context, Subadra shares her views on the integrity of market pricing signals amidst the large participation of the Fed in the market. We also explore inflation and here Subadra points out that while some components of the rise in inflation will be transitory, others, like wages, tend to be more persistent. A vulnerability that results is a the potential of a less market friendly Fed in 2022. Lastly, I solicit Subadra’s perspective on the degree of progress in promoting the career growth for women in finance. To this, she sees more attention to recognizing women and hiring them but there remains a lot of work to be done on the retention front. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Subadra Rajappa.
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