20VC: Index's Shardul Shah on Why Market Size is a Trap | Biggest Lessons on Pricing from Leading Rounds in Wiz & Datadog | Why Benchmarks & Averages in VC are BS | How Index Makes Decisions and Why Growth & Early are the Same Investing Style
Sep 16, 2024
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Shardul Shah, a Partner at Index Ventures and a leading cyber security investor, shares his insights on venture capital. He challenges the validity of total addressable market, emphasizing the importance of focusing on strong teams instead. Shardul discusses the necessity of brief initial meetings to enhance decision-making and the difficulties of remote partnerships. He highlights the balance between intuition and analysis in evaluating deals, and stresses the need for authenticity and effective communication in driving investment success.
Shardul Shah argues that traditional metrics like Total Addressable Market (TAM) can mislead investors about a company's potential.
The podcast underscores the vital role of strong teams and founders in a startup's success, beyond just market size evidence.
Effective investment decisions hinge on balancing intuition with thorough analysis, adapting to ever-changing market dynamics and competition.
Deep dives
Key Lessons in Venture Capital
Crucial lessons in venture capital include the dangers of being overly cautious with pricing, the importance of recognizing top-tier founders, and the risks of overthinking opportunities. The discussion emphasizes that many of the largest public companies today have market values exceeding initial TAM estimates. Founders who identify and explore market opportunities tend to yield the best results. Ultimately, learning to focus on producing fund returners is imperative, as the power law significantly influences the venture capital space.
The Role of Founders in Success
The conversation sheds light on the critical role of founders in driving a company's trajectory, especially regarding early-stage companies. It emphasizes the idea that exceptional founders often start their entrepreneurial journeys early in life, which correlates with greater success rates. Many successful firms have been built upon the vision and capabilities of strong teams, rather than solely on their market potential. Thus, assessing the team's composition and leadership becomes paramount when evaluating business prospects.
Investment Conviction and Risk Assessment
The importance of building conviction in investment decisions is highlighted, along with the approach to handling risk. Choices made must be strategic, involving detailed review and insight into team dynamics, competition, and product viability. Investors often face temptations to overanalyze market size, but they must focus on core fundamentals instead. The conversation illustrates the balance of intuition and analytical frameworks necessary for sound investment decisions.
Navigating Market Dynamics
The podcast emphasizes the unpredictable nature of market dynamics and the frequent misjudgments investors make regarding competition and timing. For instance, initial assumptions about the endpoint security market being commoditized were disproven, demonstrating the need for adaptability in thinking. Recognizing that market perceptions can differ drastically from reality helps investors avoid pitfalls associated with preconceived notions. Continuous learning and adapting one's perspective from past experiences are critical to achieving success in investments.
Cultivating Strong Board Relationships
Establishing effective relationships on boards is essential for fostering healthy discussions and decision-making processes. The importance of open communication, mutual respect, and trust is underlined to create an environment conducive to high-quality decision making. Board members, if cohesive and supportive, can play a significant role in guiding ventures towards strategic goals. Ultimately, discerning when to interfere with company operations and when to support the CEO's decisions is key to maintaining a productive board dynamic.
Shardul Shah is a Partner at Index Ventures and one of the greatest cyber security investors of the last two decades. Among his many wins, Shardul has led rounds in Datadog, Wiz, Duo Security, Coalition and more. Shardul is also the only Partner investing at Index to have worked in every single Index office from London, to SF, to NYC to Geneva. Prior to Index, Shardul worked with Summit Partners, focusing on healthcare and internet technologies.
In Today's Episode with Shardul Shah We Discuss:
1. Investing Lessons from Wiz and Datadog:
Why does Shardul believe that TAM (total addressable market) is BS?
Why does Shardul believe that every great deal will be expensive?
How does Shardul evaluate when to double down and concentrate capital vs when to let someone else come in and lead a round in an existing company?
How does Shardul think about when is the right time to sell a position in a company?
2. How the Best VCs Make Decisions:
How does Shardul and Index create an environment of truth-seeking together, that is optimised for the best decision-making to take place?
What are the biggest mistakes in how VCs make decisions today?
Why does Shardul believe that all first meetings should be 30 mins not 60 mins?
Why does Shardul believe it is so much harder to make investment decisions when partnerships are remote? What is better remote?
3. The Core Pillars of Venture: Sourcing, Selecting, Securing and Servicing:
Which one does Shardul believe he is best at? What is he worst at?
Does Shardul believe with the downturn we have moved into a world of selection and not just winning every new deal?
Does Shardul believe that VCs provide any value? What are the biggest misnomers when it comes to "VC value add"?
4. Lessons from the Best Investors in the World:
Who is the best board member that Shardul sits on a board with?
What has Shardul learned from Gili Raanan and Doug Leone on being a good board member?
What have been some of Shardul's biggest investing lessons from Danny Rimer?
Why does Shardul hate benchmarks when it comes to investing?
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