A Deeper Dive The outlook for restaurants in 2026
Jan 7, 2026
David Henkes, a Senior Principal at Technomic, offers valuable insights on the future of the restaurant industry. He projects modest growth for 2026, with slight traffic increases and sales up by 4.5%. Henkes discusses how economic uncertainties and inflation impact consumer confidence and dining affordability. He highlights the rising importance of older consumers in restaurant sales and shares lessons from Asia regarding service automation. Additionally, he addresses how some chains thrive by delivering value and excellent guest experiences.
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A Muted Recovery In 2026
- Technomic expects 2026 to be slightly better with ~1% real growth and ~4.5% sales growth for restaurants.
- Recovery is muted and won’t produce rapid double-digit gains industry-wide.
Affordability Is The Central Problem
- Affordability is the core challenge: menu price inflation has outpaced wage growth since mid-2022.
- Until wages catch up or inflation slows below wage growth, dining frequency will stay constrained.
AI Could Depress Wage Growth And Demand
- AI-driven productivity could suppress wages and reduce consumers' willingness to spend on dining.
- Operators should watch AI’s broader income effects as a potential drag on restaurant demand.