AXRP - the AI X-risk Research Podcast

10 - AI's Future and Impacts with Katja Grace

Jul 23, 2021

02:02:58

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Highlights

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Episode notes

What Do You Think About Non Epistemic Features?

02:12

Is There a Difference Between a I and an I?

02:02

The Difference Between Ai and Academia

02:22

Introduction

2min

Is There a Fast Explosion?

3min

How Do You Decide Which Sub Questions to Answer?

2min

What Do You Think About Non Epistemic Features?

2min

Is There a Difference Between a I and an I?

2min

Is There a Difference Between a I and Other Things?

3min

When Willi Overcome Human Performance?

3min

When Human Level a I Might Materialize?

2min

What's the Difference in Probability?

2min

10.

Is There a Difference in Framing?

2min

11.

Is High Level Machine Intelligence Really Imperative?

2min

12.

How Much Progress Have You Seen in the Field in How Many Years?

2min

13.

Forecasting Machine Intelligence

2min

14.

What Is the Most Interesting Finding From Your Survey?

2min

15.

How Long Does It Take to Cross the Human Skill Range?

3min

16.

Is There a Difference Between Humans and Other Animals?

3min

17.

Are Chickens Really Good at Checkersbord?

2min

18.

The Range in Learning Languages Isn't That Big

1min

19.

How Long Will It Take to Measure Time?

2min

20.

How Common Are Discontinuities in Technology?

3min

21.

Is There a Discontinuity?

2min

22.

How Many Discontinuities Are There in Ai?

3min

23.

Is There a Discontinuity?

3min

24.

Is Machine Learning a Good Idea for Machine Learning?

4min

25.

Is There a Human Skill Range, or a Simple Algorithm?

2min

26.

Is There a Difference Between Human Ability and Human Ability?

3min

27.

Is There a Core Intelligence to Doing Well at Schmess?

2min

28.

Is There a Risk in a I?

3min

29.

Is There a Better Model for Incoherent Preferences?

2min

30.

How Do You Become More Coherent?

2min

31.

Are You Imagining the Future Choice?

2min

32.

Would You Like to Have a Superhuman?

2min

33.

Is There a Level of Progress in Humans?

2min

34.

Optimizing It Doesn't Take Over the World

2min

35.

Is It Like, Make Me a Breter, Please?

2min

36.

Agents Are Like, Really Good for Achieving Goals

2min

37.

How to Write a Fore Loop Into a Gamer's Environment

2min

38.

Is There a Difference Between Agents and Humans?

3min

39.

Is There a Range of Goals in Programming?

2min

40.

I've Changed My Mind About Ai

3min

41.

Is There a Future That We Hate?

2min

42.

The Most Competent People Aren't Doing That Well, Right?

2min

43.

Can You Trick All Animals?

2min

44.

The Relationship Between Agents and Agents

2min

45.

How Much of the Future Do You Get?

2min

46.

Is There a Lot of Control of the Future?

2min

47.

Ai Systems Respect Property Rights

2min

48.

Is It a Thing Like Human Extinction?

1min

49.

Is It Human Extinction?

3min

50.

Is This a Risk?

2min

51.

How Long Does It Take to Solve Various at Conjectures?

2min

52.

Is There a Difference in the Kind of Clusters of Related Stuff in Apex?

3min

53.

I Think It's the Point of a PhD Theses, Theses

2min

54.

The Difference Between Ai and Academia

2min

55.

A Impacts Dotr Web Site, Is It a Good Idea?

3min

When going about trying to ensure that AI does not cause an existential catastrophe, it's likely important to understand how AI will develop in the future, and why exactly it might or might not cause such a catastrophe. In this episode, I interview Katja Grace, researcher at AI Impacts, who's done work surveying AI researchers about when they expect superhuman AI to be reached, collecting data about how rapidly AI tends to progress, and thinking about the weak points in arguments that AI could be catastrophic for humanity.

Topics we discuss:

- 00:00:34 - AI Impacts and its research

- 00:08:59 - How to forecast the future of AI

- 00:13:33 - Results of surveying AI researchers

- 00:30:41 - Work related to forecasting AI takeoff speeds

- 00:31:11 - How long it takes AI to cross the human skill range

- 00:42:47 - How often technologies have discontinuous progress

- 00:50:06 - Arguments for and against fast takeoff of AI

- 01:04:00 - Coherence arguments

- 01:12:15 - Arguments that AI might cause existential catastrophe, and counter-arguments

- 01:13:58 - The size of the super-human range of intelligence

- 01:17:22 - The dangers of agentic AI

- 01:25:45 - The difficulty of human-compatible goals

- 01:33:54 - The possibility of AI destroying everything

- 01:49:42 - The future of AI Impacts

- 01:52:17 - AI Impacts vs academia

- 02:00:25 - What AI x-risk researchers do wrong

- 02:01:43 - How to follow Katja's and AI Impacts' work

The transcript: axrp.net/episode/2021/07/23/episode-10-ais-future-and-dangers-katja-grace.html

"When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts": arxiv.org/abs/1705.08807

AI Impacts page of more complete survey results: aiimpacts.org/2016-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai

Likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI: aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi

Discontinuous progress investigation: aiimpacts.org/discontinuous-progress-investigation

The range of human intelligence: aiimpacts.org/is-the-range-of-human-intelligence-small

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