EMERGENCY POD: Trump's Pivot to Putin, AGI + The Future of Warfare

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Feb 28, 2025

Guest

Michael C. Horowitz

Guest

Shashank Joshi

Shashank Joshi, a Defense editor at The Economist renowned for his Ukraine coverage, teams up with Michael Horowitz, a Penn professor and former defense official specializing in AI. They delve into Ukraine's battlefield prospects, debating political cohesion and defense capacity. The discussion turns to Trump's shifting stance on Putin and its implications. They also explore how AI, particularly through 'precise mass' tactics, revolutionizes modern warfare. The pair emphasize the incremental nature of AI advancements in combat and the enduring challenges in defense innovation.

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ANECDOTE

J.D. Vance vs. Shashank Joshi on Ukraine

Shashank Joshi engaged in a Twitter exchange with J.D. Vance about Ukraine's chances.
Vance argued that Ukraine is fated to lose due to Russia's manpower and firepower, while Joshi highlighted the nonlinear nature of war.

INSIGHT

Nonlinearity of War

Wars are nonlinear and depend on factors beyond manpower and firepower, such as political cohesion and economic strength.
Smaller, better-trained armies or those with different strategies can win, as Israel did in 1967.

INSIGHT

Trump's Pivot to Putin

America holds significant leverage over the political economy of the war, influencing both sides.
Trump's potential pivot to Putin raises concerns about a lopsided deal detrimental to Ukraine and Europe.

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Note: This episode was recorded Wednesday February 26th, two days before Zelenskyy's press conference with J.D. Vance and Trump in the White House.

Shashank Joshi (Defence Editor at The Economist) and Michael Horowitz (Biden's Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Force Development and Emerging Capabilities, now back at Penn) come on the show to discuss:

Ukraine's Chances on the Battlefield: We revisit J.D. Vance's tweet war with Shashank where he claims Ukraine is fated to lose, highlighting how war is nonlinear and dependent on political cohesion, economic strength, and defense industrial capacity beyond just manpower.
Trump's Pivot to Putin: We try to think through what Trump is doing with Ukraine and Russia at the strategic level and what the long term and second order consequences are.
AI and the Future of Warfare: We discuss of how AGI would transform warfare, with Horowitz suggesting progress will be incremental rather than revolutionary, emphasizing government adoption challenges over 0 to 1 technical breakthroughs.
"Precise Mass" in Combat: Ukrainian forces have demonstrated how AI-guided drones achieving 80%+ hit rates have changed battlefield dynamics, introducing the concept of "precise mass" - lower-cost precision systems deployed at scale across domains including air, land, and sea. See Mike's Foreign Affairs piece on the topic here: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/battles-precise-mass-technology-war-horowitz
Defense Innovation Challenges: Western bureaucratic processes severely impede military innovation, with Horowitz noting that reprogramming just 0.05% of the defense budget required over 40 congressional briefings, contrasting with Ukraine's wartime innovation speed and calling for acquisition reform.

Recommended Books:

Under the Nuclear Shadow by Fiona Cunningham
Army of None by Paul Scharre
Billion Dollar Spy by David Hoffman

Outtro Music:

Santigold, You'll Find a Way: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IodbPh7RkBw

Vampire Weekend, Walcott: https://open.spotify.com/track/0BZY839qKXibapu4S0GYE2?si=7ecc773a95ee4d62

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