607: How to Quit Bad Stuff Faster, with Annie Duke

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Dec 5, 2022

Annie Duke, a renowned author and former professional poker champion, dives into the intriguing concept of quitting effectively. She discusses how setting 'kill criteria' can help identify when to walk away from unproductive ventures. With an eye on decision-making psychology, she explores misconceptions about persistence versus the strategic benefits of quitting. Annie also highlights the importance of trust in communication and the double-edged nature of goal-setting, advocating for flexibility and adaptability in both personal and professional lives.

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ADVICE

Fold More Often

In poker, fold more often than you hold, like professionals who fold about 75% of the time initially.
Amateurs often overplay weak hands, hoping for miracles, which leads to losses.

INSIGHT

Worthwhile Endeavors

Quitting while ahead is bad advice; focus on whether the endeavor is worthwhile, not current gains or losses.
People tend to be risk-averse while winning and risk-seeking while losing, ignoring expected value.

ANECDOTE

Retail Investor Behavior

A study on retail investors showed they sold stocks prematurely when ahead, canceling take-gain orders early.
Conversely, they canceled stop-loss orders to keep gambling, trying to recover losses.

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Annie Duke: Quit Annie Duke is an author, corporate speaker, and consultant in the decision-making space, as well as Special Partner focused on Decision Science at First Round Capital Partners, a seed stage venture fund. Her previous book, Thinking in Bets, is a national bestseller. As a former professional poker player, she has won more than $4 million in tournament poker. During her career, Annie won a World Series of Poker bracelet and is the only woman to have won the World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions and the NBC National Poker Heads-Up Championship. She retired from the game in 2012. Prior to becoming a professional poker player, she was awarded a National Science Foundation Fellowship to study Cognitive Psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. Annie is the co-founder of The Alliance for Decision Education, a non-profit whose mission is to improve lives by empowering students through decision skills education. She is a member of the National Board of After-School All-Stars and the Board of Directors of the Franklin Institute. She also serves on the board of the Renew Democracy Initiative. Annie is the author of Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away*. We’ve all heard the lie that, “Winners never quit and quitters never win.” In reality, one of the best practices to develop is how to recognize more quickly when you should quit something that’s not working. In this conversation, Annie and I discuss how to set kill criteria for yourself and frame goals in more helpful ways to know when quitting is the best answer. Key Points Kenny Rogers was right; professional poker players know that a big part of success is quitting approximately 75% of the time. “Quit while you’re ahead” is often poor advice since we tend to quit too early when good things are happening. On the contrary, we tend to quit too late when we’ve accumulated sunk cost. Determine kill criteria in advance when you’re not as likely to be swayed by the emotions of the moment. The best criteria contain both a state and a date. Find someone who loves you but doesn’t care about your feelings. Trust and permission are essential to open up these kinds of conversations. Effective goals include at least one “unless…” Resources Mentioned Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away* by Annie Duke Interview Notes Download my interview notes in PDF format (free membership required). Related Episodes How to Pivot Quickly, with Steve Blank (episode 476) The Way to Make Better Decisions, with Annie Duke (episode 499) How to Build Confidence, with Katy Milkman (episode 533) Discover More Activate your free membership for full access to the entire library of interviews since 2011, searchable by topic.