20VC: The Ultimate Guide to Scaling Marketplaces, Why Rule of 40 and EBITDA Optimisation is BS, How Founders & VCs Should Approach Market Sizing and Outcome Scenario Planning and Why Europe is Failing with Vinted CEO, Thomas Plantenga & Alex Taussig
Feb 12, 2024
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Thomas Plantenga, CEO of Vinted, and Alex Taussig from Lightspeed discuss topics such as Thomas becoming CEO, Vinted's growth metrics and expansion strategy, the flaws of 'Rule of 40' and EBITDA optimization in startups, and the challenges of scaling a marketplace. They also talk about the impact of COVID-19 on Vinted, market entry priorities, and the European market. In the episode, they provide valuable insights into the mechanics of marketplaces and share their experiences in different markets.
Vinted prioritizes new market selection based on the probability of success and the size of the market.
Building depth in each market drives network effects and increases the value of the marketplace.
Vinted emphasizes the importance of considering absolute cash flow and return on equity, rather than fixating on metrics like Rule of 40 and EBITDA margin.
Deep dives
Determining success probability and market size
When choosing new markets to expand into, Vinted assesses the probability of success and the size of the market. Probability of success is determined by competition, infrastructure development, maturity of the e-commerce market, and other variables. The size of the market is also a crucial factor. The equation is a product of these two factors, which helps prioritize the selection of new markets.
Building depth in each market
Vinted focuses on building depth in each market to drive network effects and increase the value of the marketplace. The more inventory and liquidity they have, the higher the conversion rates and the faster the sales. Depth plays a significant role in shaping the efficient frontier and balancing supply and demand in the marketplace.
Ramp time to profitability
The time it takes to achieve profitability varies from 12 months to 3 years, depending on the country and the level of aggression in scaling. As Vinted expands and matures, the time to profitability is expected to decrease, aided by cross-border network effects, lower shipping rates, and increased brand awareness.
Assessing customer acquisition costs
Vinted carefully evaluates customer acquisition costs (CAC) to ensure efficient spending. Looking at the marginal cost rather than average cost, they consider the probability of success, payback period, cash flow, and distributed values of CAC to make informed decisions about marketing investments.
The Future of the Second-Hand Marketplace
The podcast episode discusses the future of the second-hand marketplace, highlighting the transformation towards an Amazon-like platform for second-hand goods. The speaker envisions a global platform with fully integrated shipping and payment functionalities across every category, creating a dominant peer-to-peer marketplace business. The goal is to replicate the success of companies like Alibaba and Mercado Libre, expanding across various industries to become a valuable enterprise. The potential enterprise value is estimated to be around $40-50 billion in the next 10 years.
Challenging Conventional Metrics in Business Evaluation
The podcast delves into the pitfalls of relying solely on metrics like the Rule of 40 and EBITDA margin when evaluating businesses. The speakers emphasize the importance of considering the absolute cash flow generated by a company, rather than fixating on specific ratios. They argue that high margins or meeting certain metrics do not guarantee a successful or valuable business. Instead, the focus should be on the absolute value of cash flow and return on equity. They urge investors and operators to prioritize the fundamentals of a business and make investments based on long-term growth potential.
Thomas Plantenga is the CEO @ Vinted, one of the fastest-growing marketplaces in the world with a valuation of $4.5BN. Prior to becoming CEO, Thomas worked with a range of organisations including Bookaboat, OLX, Sellit/Wallapop and FJLabs.
Alex Taussig is a General Partner @ Lightspeed and co-leads the fund's Consumer investment team. Alex's portfolio includes the likes of All Day Kitchens, Archive Resale, Daily Harvest, Faire, Found, Frubana, Keychain, Kikoff, Vinted, YaySay, and Zola.
In Today's Episode with Thomas Plantenga and Alex Taussig We Discuss:
1. The CEO Who Did Not Want to be CEO:
How did Thomas come to be CEO @ Vinted? Why did he not want the job at first?
What does Thomas know now that he wishes he had known when he started?
2. The Mechanics of the Fastest Growing Marketplace:
What is the single most important metric for Vinted?
How does Vinted determine what market to open next? What do they look for?
How does Vinted think about depth vs breadth in each country?
What is the AOV today? How does it vary by country?
How long does it take for each country to be cash flow positive?
3. The Biggest BS in Startups: Rule of 40 and EBITDA:
Why does Thomas think VC's obsession with "Rule of 40" is BS?
Why does Thomas believe EBITDA optimization is BS and useless?
What are the hardest elements of scaling a marketplace that no one knows?
4. The Bull, Bear and Investor Approach to Vinted:
Alex, what was Lightspeed's pre and post-mortem when investing in Vinted?
How does Lightspeed analyze TAM and market sizing when investing?
What was Lightspeed's single biggest concern when investing in Vinted?
5. Europe: A Hub of Innovation or a Retirement Home:
Does Thomas believe that European young people have a worse work ethic than those in the US?
Is Thomas concerned by the state of regulation hampering innovation in Europe?
What can be done to improve work ethic and the state of regulation today?
Why is Alex and Lightspeed more bullish than ever on Europe today?
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