Infinite Loops Annie Duke — Why We Make the Wrong Decisions (Ep. 296)
46 snips
Jan 8, 2026 
Annie Duke, a former professional poker player and decision strategist, dives deep into the art of decision-making. She explains how misinterpretation can be riskier than misinformation and emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between true data and misleading conclusions. Annie shares insights on teaching probabilistic thinking, the pitfalls of deterministic reasoning, and how to ask the right questions about data. She also discusses the role of luck versus decision quality, urging listeners to adopt decision hygiene practices for better outcomes.
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Decisions Are Forecasts
- Every decision is fundamentally a forecast about outcomes and payoffs based on probabilities.
- Decision quality depends on the inputs used to estimate expected value toward your goals.
Misinterpretation Outweighs Misinformation
- Misinterpretation of true facts causes far more harm than outright misinformation.
- People leap from description to causal explanation without interrogating the data.
The Washington Post COVID Headline Example
- Annie recounts a Washington Post headline claiming COVID was no longer a pandemic of the unvaccinated.
- Age and population-vaccination denominators reversed the misleading inference and showed unvaccinated risk remained higher.
