NAB Morning Call
Markets wait calmly for US inflation data
Aug 12, 2024
In this discussion, Taylor Nugent from NAB Markets Research shares insights on the calmness in US shares and bonds as the market awaits crucial inflation data. Andrew Hauser from the RBA critiques the media's overconfidence in economic forecasting and its impact on rate cut pricing. They delve into upcoming economic indicators, rising geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices, and the delicate balance between market optimism and the RBA's cautious stance. Expect insightful takes on wage pressures and the evolving economic landscape.
14:17
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Quick takeaways
- Markets are currently stable as investors await crucial US inflation data, particularly the Producer Price Index, which could influence future investment strategies.
- The RBA's Deputy Governor emphasized the dangers of overconfidence in economic forecasting, urging a more flexible approach amidst growing market scrutiny over potential rate cuts.
Deep dives
Market Reactions to US Inflation Data
Anticipation is building around upcoming US inflation data, particularly the Producer Price Index (PPI), which could significantly impact market movements. Recent signs show that US stocks have remained relatively stable, with minor fluctuations in major indices like the DOW and NASDAQ. In a broader context, analysts predict a small increase in the PPI of around 0.2% month-on-month, which investors will closely monitor for indications of inflation's persistence. The market's subdued response suggests that many traders are choosing to wait for this crucial data point before committing to major investment decisions.
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