RBA's Caution Against Overconfidence in Economic Forecasting

Tuesday 13th August 2024

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US shares and bond markets have remained relatively calm, as we await the latest inflation data from the US (PPI today, CPI tomorrow). There’s plenty of data flow this week, says NAB’s Taylor Nugent, but there’s been nothing so far to move markets. Locally, will the speech from the RBA’s Andrew Hauser have any impact on the pricing for rate cuts this year? He criticised the media for talking with “extraordinary certainty” about the outlook of the economy and what the RBA was going to do about it. But markets are still pricing in a 50:50 chance of a rate cut as early as November, despite the bank’s determined effort to convince us otherwise.

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