The China-Global South Podcast Trump, China and the New Power Politics in Asia
Oct 14, 2025
James Crabtree, a distinguished fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, dives into the shifting alliances in Asia under Trump’s erratic policies. He explores how China's economic downturn is met with growing confidence, while regional leaders grapple with waning U.S. security guarantees. Taiwan's uncertain standing, Vietnam's balancing act with tariffs, and India's pivot toward Europe highlight the complex geopolitical landscape. The discussion paints a vivid picture of a dynamic yet precarious Asian power narrative.
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China Sees Opportunity And Anxiety
- China sees opportunity in Trump-era U.S. instability because it weakens anti-China coalitions.
- Yet Beijing remains anxious about slow economic growth and an unpredictable U.S. posture on core issues like Taiwan.
Anti-China Coalition Is Fraying
- Trump's removal of China-focused staff and hawks has eroded the bipartisan anti-China coalition in Washington.
- That collapse increases regional uncertainty because allies can no longer rely on consistent U.S. strategy.
Allies Can't Replace U.S. Security Role
- Asian allies cannot replace U.S. security guarantees and face worse net security without Washington.
- They therefore pursue diversification but cannot fully substitute the American security umbrella.
