The China-Global South Podcast

Donald Trump strongly feels that U.S. security alliances in Europe no longer serve Washington's long-term interest. In his view, the U.S. is being "ripped off" by wealthy countries that can afford to pay for their protection but choose to rely on the United States instead. He also says much the same thing about the U.S. military presence in Japan and South Korea. Curiously, though, the Philippines is different. U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth recently visited Manila and reaffirmed Washigton's "ironclad" commitment to protect the Southeast Asian country against "China's aggression." Ray Powell, director of the Sealight initiative at Stanford University's Gordian Knott Center for National Security Innovation and host of the "Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific Podcast," joins Eric and CGSP Southeast Asia Editor Edwin Shri Bimo to discuss why the national security team in Washington remains appears to be more committed to the Philippines than other alliance partners. (A full transcript of this episode is available on the CGSP website) Show Notes: Apple Podcasts: Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific? hosted by Ray Powell and Jim Caruso 60 Minutes: China rams Philippine ship while 60 Minutes on board; South China Sea tensions could draw U.S. in JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @gordianknotray Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH AND ARABIC: Français: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Arabic: عربي: www.alsin-alsharqalawsat.com | @SinSharqAwsat JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

Agatha Kratz, a partner at Rhodium Group specializing in corporate advisory, and Juliana Bouchot, a senior analyst focused on supply chain policy, dive into the complexities of China’s role in global supply chains. They discuss escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and the potential impacts of new tariffs on inflation and consumers. The conversation reveals the challenges major companies, like Apple, face in reshoring their manufacturing. They also explore the prospects for emerging markets absorbing China’s manufacturing output amidst these shifts.

Kyle Chan, a postdoctoral researcher at Princeton and author of the High Capacity Substack, dives deep into the current trade war landscape. He highlights the significant impact of escalating U.S. tariffs on developing countries, particularly in Southeast Asia. Chan discusses how China is adapting by relocating manufacturing to the Global South. The conversation also explores intricate U.S.-China semiconductor dynamics and evolving trade practices, emphasizing the shift from mere economic competition to considerations of fair trade and its broader implications for global markets.

China and Vietnam have taken two distinctly different approaches in how they manage their territorial disputes with China. The Philippines is leaning into its alliance with the United States along with new security pacts with more than half a dozen other countries. Vietnam, in contrast, is going it alone. Ironically, Vietnam is expanding its territorial presence in the disputed South China Sea through island reclamation, while the Philippines is merely trying to hold on to the territory it already claims. Yet, the face-off between Beijing and Manila is far more aggressive.  Khang Vu, a visiting scholar at Boston College and a leading Vietnam analyst, said the key difference between the two is the Philippines' decision to bring an outside power (the U.S.) into the dispute. Khang joins Eric & Cobus to discuss what lessons the South China Sea confrontation offers other countries trying to manage equally contentious great power rivalries. JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH AND ARABIC: Français: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Arabic: عربي: www.alsin-alsharqalawsat.com | @SinSharqAwsat JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

Gyude Moore, a former minister of public works in Liberia and an expert on African development, discusses the shifting global landscape with Eric and Cobus. He highlights the decline of U.S. hegemony and the rise of China's influence in Africa. The conversation dives into the implications of diminishing U.S. aid and the necessity for Africa to form diverse partnerships. Moore also emphasizes the imbalanced trade relationship with China and the importance of leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area for economic integration and local production.

U.S. President Donald Trump's decision this week to pause military funding for Ukraine and to align his government with Russia further widens the cleavage between the United States and Europe — effectively breaking what has long been known as "the West." At first glance, many of China's Western critics will see this as welcome news, but it also means that Beijing must navigate in a much more fragmented and turbulent geopolitical environment. The Paris-based global affairs think tank Institut Montaigne recently published a detailed forecast of the challenges that lie ahead for China over the coming decade. The report's authors, François Godement and Pierre Pinhas, join Eric & Cobus to discuss four scenarios they mapped out that could shape China's trajectory in this new era. SHOW NOTES: Read the Institut Montaigne Report: China 2035: The Chances of Success JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH AND ARABIC: Français: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Arabic: عربي: www.alsin-alsharqalawsat.com | @SinSharqAwsat JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

John Lee, a Senior Fellow at the Asia Society Switzerland and seasoned technology analyst, dives into the transformative potential of Chinese innovations in AI and automotive tech for the Global South. He analyzes how DeepSeek's launch has shifted the AI landscape, making advanced tech more accessible to developing countries. The discussion also covers the impact of Chinese electric vehicles in Southeast Asia, regulatory challenges surrounding data privacy, and the rise of open-source models, highlighting the democratization of technology in these regions.

A lively debate unfolds on the role of China as a trade partner for developing nations. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi touts economic growth as a global benefit, but critics argue that this trade mainly favors China. The discussion dives into complex trade dynamics and imbalances faced by countries like Kenya and South Africa. Governance challenges in mining sectors and corruption issues are also scrutinized, alongside American perspectives on foreign trade. The impact of BRICS and comparisons of leadership styles add further intriguing layers to this global trade conversation.

Alonso Illueca, an associate law professor at Universidad Santa María La Antigua and an expert in China-Panama relations, delves into the escalating tensions surrounding the Panama Canal. He discusses Donald Trump's claims of Chinese control and Panama's limited options in countering U.S. pressure. Illueca explores the growing influence of Chinese companies in the region, the implications for U.S.-Panama relations, and how Latin American countries are increasingly looking to China amidst geopolitical shifts. The conversation reveals the strategic significance of the canal in international diplomacy.

On Monday, January 20, Donald Trump will take the oath of office and return to power as president of the United States. Trump is promising to overhaul U.S. foreign and commercial policy in what many experts believe will mark the start of a very tumultuous period — not just for the United States but also for countries around the world. Sarah Shidore, director of the Global South program at the Quincy Institute in Washington, D.C. joins Eric & Cobus to discuss the impact of the coming Trump presidency on developing countries and how he expects China to respond. JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH AND ARABIC: Français: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Arabic: عربي: www.alsin-alsharqalawsat.com | @SinSharqAwsat JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth