The Decision Education Podcast

Episode 001: Base Rates and Bees with Michael Mauboussin

Jan 27, 2021

41:40

Creator website

AI Summary

Highlights

AI Chapters

Episode notes

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Consider base rates and reference classes for informed decision-making.

Recognize the impact of luck and skill in decision outcomes.

Deep dives

Importance of Considering Alternatives in Decision Making

Failing to consider alternatives is a common mistake in decision-making. This oversight can impact the outcomes and overall quality of decisions. By recognizing the importance of exploring different options, individuals and organizations can enhance their decision-making processes.

Common Mistakes in Decision Making and the Failure to Consider Alternatives

02:22

How to Improve Your Decision Making in Poker

04:40

The Challenge of Crowding Out

01:34

Is There a Difference Between Base Rate and Base Rate?

01:51

Introduction

2min

The Success Equation

2min

Think Twice, a New Approach to Decision Making

4min

What Are the Mistakes in Decision Making?

5min

What Is a Base Rate Distribution?

3min

Base Rates or Reference Class Grants?

3min

Exploiting Versus Exploitation

5min

Ain't a Quick Little Grid

2min

How to Improve Your Decision Making in Poker

5min

10.

Is There a Difference Between Base Rate and Base Rate?

2min

11.

What Would You Like to See Change in the World?

4min

12.

The Challenge of Crowding Out

2min

13.

What's Good for the Individual Versus What'S Good for Society?

2min

How might our decision-making improve if we ask ourselves, “What happened when other people were in this situation before?” Michael Mauboussin, Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, joins your host Dr. Joe Sweeney, Executive Director of the Alliance for Decision Education, to discuss the importance of considering base rates and reference classes when making tough choices, the undervalued impact of keeping a decision journal, and the overlooked role of luck in the outcomes we observe. And when it comes to the choice between exploring and exploiting our resources, you’ll learn what ants and bees can teach us about decision-making. Welcome to Season 1 - Episode 1.

Remember Everything You Learn from Podcasts

Save insights instantly, chat with episodes, and build lasting knowledge - all powered by AI.

The Decision Education Podcast

Episode 001: Base Rates and Bees with Michael Mauboussin

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Deep dives

Importance of Considering Alternatives in Decision Making

Significance of Base Rates in Decision Making

Balancing Skill and Luck in Decision Making

Exploration vs. Exploitation Strategy

Common Mistakes in Decision Making and the Failure to Consider Alternatives

How to Improve Your Decision Making in Poker

The Challenge of Crowding Out

Is There a Difference Between Base Rate and Base Rate?

Remember Everything You Learn from Podcasts