Episode 001: Base Rates and Bees with Michael Mauboussin
The Decision Education Podcast
How to Improve Your Decision Making in Poker
When you are in a probablistic field where the outcomes are determined by both a skilled component and a luck component, you have to focus on process. The beauty of documenting the quality of your decisions is it allows you to focus on the component you can control. And so when people keep track of their forecasts, and they do it in a way that's probablistic, as i just described,. It turns out get better at their celebration. They get better at this. That's why weather forecasters right now tend to be more accurate with an eye toward improving their calebration.
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