The AI Policy Podcast The Past, Present, and Future of Technology Forecasting with Jeff Alstott
Aug 30, 2024
Jeff Alstott, an expert at the National Science Foundation and director of the Center for Technology and Security Policy at RAND, dives deep into technology forecasting. He critiques traditional methods and emphasizes the need for strategic foresight and robust data to enhance predictions. Alstott discusses the challenges of data accessibility and the impact of historical contexts on future advancements. He also shares insights on the role of AI in shaping national security and the importance of collaborative initiatives in technology assessment.
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Alstott's Interdisciplinary Background
- Jeff Alstott's academic background includes biology, cognitive science, and history, leading him to consider information processing across different timescales.
- This multidisciplinary approach sparked his interest in AI and technology's impact on the future.
Technology's Impact on Science
- Scientific progress, especially in neuroscience, is often limited by data collection capabilities and available measurement technologies.
- Recognizing this, Alstott realized that technological advancements drive scientific breakthroughs, leading him to explore technology forecasting.
Moore's Law: A Forecasting Example
- Moore's Law, an observation about transistor density, serves as a key example of tech forecasting, though it lacks a mechanistic explanation.
- It accurately predicted trends in computing power, influencing technology development and planning, but it doesn't explain why the trend exists.