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The AI Policy Podcast

The Past, Present, and Future of Technology Forecasting with Jeff Alstott

Aug 30, 2024
Jeff Alstott, an expert at the National Science Foundation and director of the Center for Technology and Security Policy at RAND, dives deep into technology forecasting. He critiques traditional methods and emphasizes the need for strategic foresight and robust data to enhance predictions. Alstott discusses the challenges of data accessibility and the impact of historical contexts on future advancements. He also shares insights on the role of AI in shaping national security and the importance of collaborative initiatives in technology assessment.
59:26

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • Jeff Alstott emphasizes the importance of understanding historical technological developments to inform future investments and strategies effectively.
  • Advancements in natural language processing are revolutionizing technology forecasting, enhancing data collection and enabling the development of causal models.

Deep dives

Expertise in Technology and Policy

The discussion highlights the unique intersection of Jeff Alstott's career, which combines expertise in technology forecasting, national security, and public policy. Initially studying a diverse range of subjects such as biology, cognitive science, and history, Alstott developed a framework for understanding technology's evolution and implications for society. This foundational knowledge enabled him to pivot towards artificial intelligence and its future potential, particularly in assisting governmental and societal advancements. By revisiting historical timelines of technology, he emphasizes that understanding these past developments can better inform future investments and strategies.

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