Net Assessment Risky Business: Assessing Risk to U.S. Strategy
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Feb 6, 2025 Dive into the complexities of risk assessment in U.S. national security strategy. The discussion touches on the challenges policymakers face and calls for deeper bureaucratic changes. There's praise for military decision-making reviews, addressing past mistakes like those from the Iraq War. The conversation also critiques current tariff strategies, advocating for better trade relations with allies while scrutinizing economic impacts. Civil servant efforts and early actions in the administration receive recognition, emphasizing the importance of international alliances.
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Risk in US Strategy
- Frank Hoffman argues that U.S. policymakers don't understand risk well and don't incorporate it into decisions.
- This is a fundamental critique of U.S. strategic thinking, as diplomacy is about risk.
Acknowledging Risk
- The DOD acknowledges risk in some theaters, implying a lack of risk in others.
- All strategies inherently involve risk; there's no such thing as risk-free.
Iraq War Decision-Making
- Frank Hoffman criticizes the decision-making leading up to the Iraq War.
- Policymakers favored different approaches without careful risk assessment.