Net Assessment

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the recent short war between India and Pakistan. Christopher Clary’s first cut of history provides a careful reconstruction of the key events, made all the more difficult by misinformation and disinformation on both sides. But did either side “win”? What role, if any, did Trump administration officials play in negotiating the ceasefire, and what does their involvement portend for the future? How did new technology shape each side’s behavior in that conflict? And are crises between the two countries likely to escalate in severity in the coming years, or can they reach some accommodation? Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth earns a grievance for gutting the Pentagon’s operational testing office, but an atta for his strong performance at the Shangri-La Dialogue defense summit in Singapore. Attas to the Ukrainians for the audacious drone attack deep inside of Russia, to President Trump for repealing the supersonic air travel ban, and to the newly elected South Korean President Lee Jae-Myung. Grievances for the abysmal state of servicemembers’ housing, and to the Trump administration’s crackdown on foreign students wishing to attend U.S. universities. Show Links:   Christopher Clary, “Four Days in May: The India-Pakistan Crisis of 2025,” Stimson Center, May 28, 2025 https://www.stimson.org/2025/four-days-in-may-the-india-pakistan-crisis-of-2025/ Asfandyar Mir, “India and Pakistan Enter a More Dangerous Era,” New York Times, May 9, 2025 https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/09/opinion/india-and-pakistan-enter-a-more-dangerous-era.html  “Five Key Concepts to Understand the India-Pakistan Crisis,” May 19, 2025, Stimson Center https://www.stimson.org/2025/five-key-concepts-to-understand-the-india-pakistan-crisis/  Supporting Stimson: https://www.stimson.org/support/ Dan Grazier, “Gutting military testing office may be the deadliest move yet,” Responsible Statecraft, June 4, 2025 https://responsiblestatecraft.org/dod-testing-cuts/ Choe Sang-Hun, “He Survived a Knife to the Neck. Now He’ll Lead a Divided South Korea,” New York Times, June 3, 2025 https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/03/world/asia/lee-south-korea-new-president.html Donald Trump, post, Truth Social, April 22, 2025. Donald Trump, post, Truth Social, May 10, 2025. Executive Order, “Leading the World in Supersonic Flight,” White House, June 6, 2025. Sudhi, Ranjan Sen, Faseeh Mangi, Dan Strumpf, and Akyla Gardner, “Trump Truce Leaves India Furious, Pakistan Elated as Risks Loom,” Bloomberg, May 11, 2025. Diaa Hadid and Omkar Khandekar, “Vice President Vance Says India-Pakistan Fighting is ‘None of Our Business,’” National Public Radio, May 10, 2025. Timothy A. Walton and Thomas H. Shugart, Concrete Sky: Air Base Hardening in the Western Pacific, Hudson Institute, January 7, 2025. Rene Kladzyk, “Navy Secretary ‘Appalled’ by Barracks Conditions in Guam,” Project on Government Oversight, May 29, 2025. 

The discussion examines President Trump’s foreign policy as it relates to power dynamics among the U.S., China, and Russia. Key topics include shifts in U.S. alliances in East Asia and the implications of China’s territorial expansions. Attention is given to nuclear proliferation risks with nations like Saudi Arabia and Japan. The talk also raises concerns about foreign ownership of strategic areas and the corruption affecting U.S. policy. Personal anecdotes add a lighthearted touch, counterbalancing serious geopolitical issues.

The discussion dives into the paradox of American power, where the U.S. remains wealthy and influential despite internal dysfunction and political polarization. It examines the urban-rural divide and its implications for national security. The conversation highlights how domestic policies, especially nationalism and isolationism, may erode America's global standing. The speakers also touch on immigration's role in the economy, alongside criticisms of current infrastructure projects and their ramifications for American influence abroad.

The hosts debate the viability of arms control, tackling Rose Gottemoeller's perspective that it's still crucial. They explore potential negotiations with Russia and China, weighing demands and concessions. A critical look is taken at U.S. foreign policy, especially concerning the State Department's restructuring and a minerals deal in Ukraine. Personal tributes also emerge, honoring a mentor's legacy while considering the evolving landscape of diplomacy and what Gen Z thinks about American foreign policies.

The discussion dives into the complexities of policymaking during the Trump administration, focusing on internal divisions and consensus. Key challenges include addressing China's rising influence and the inconsistency in national security policies. There's a humorous take on frustrations over the Navy's Constellation frigate, alongside critiques of trade strategies that undermine coherent governance. Personal accomplishments and the importance of academic freedom are celebrated, revealing a mix of serious and lighthearted moments throughout the conversation.

The hosts share a big announcement while reflecting on their journey and the importance of the Office of Net Assessment. They debate the impact of cryptocurrencies like DOGE and delve into Secretary Hegseth's recent visit to Asia, highlighting shifts in international alliances. The conversation investigates the risks of abrupt policy changes and the complexities of U.S.-China relations. Personal anecdotes offer a glimpse into remote collaborations, while the group emphasizes the need for thoughtful dialogue in defense strategies.

The discussion dives into the possibility of Israel striking Iranian nuclear facilities and the U.S. response. The hosts share conflicting views on military action and its implications for U.S.-Israel relations. Chris critiques the loss of historical data from government sites, while Melanie expresses frustration over Congressional funding tactics. Zack highlights issues with the administration's funding process affecting cultural institutions. The conversation also touches on the complexities of international diplomacy and military logistics.

The hosts dive deep into Trump's push for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, questioning his motives and the implications for global diplomacy. They critique Congress for its lack of oversight on arms sales and examine shifting U.S. foreign policy, especially concerning NATO and European security. Discussions also touch on potential geopolitical futures and the need for proactive European leadership amidst rising tensions with China. Personal triumphs and a call for upholding constitutional responsibilities add a lighter touch to the serious topics at hand.

The hosts dive into Timothy Heath's critique of the People's Liberation Army, arguing its focus on party loyalty might hinder combat readiness. They ponder whether this affects U.S. strategy regarding a potential conflict over Taiwan. Tensions amplify as they dissect the implications of NATO's diplomatic missteps, particularly concerning Ukraine. The conversation also illuminates shifting perceptions of European leadership and the necessity for strong U.S.-India relations for regional stability. Insights on nuclear policies and defense spending round out this thought-provoking discussion.

Dive into the complexities of risk assessment in U.S. national security strategy. The discussion touches on the challenges policymakers face and calls for deeper bureaucratic changes. There's praise for military decision-making reviews, addressing past mistakes like those from the Iraq War. The conversation also critiques current tariff strategies, advocating for better trade relations with allies while scrutinizing economic impacts. Civil servant efforts and early actions in the administration receive recognition, emphasizing the importance of international alliances.