Net Assessment Are Rising Powers Over?
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Oct 30, 2025 The hosts explore the implications of declining rising powers and the global order stagnating. They discuss demographic shifts, with ageing populations stressing welfare systems, while contrasting youthful demographics in sub-Saharan Africa. The conversation touches on the potential hurdles for transformative technology, the U.S. as a rogue superpower, and political dysfunction hindering reforms. They also weigh the impact of immigration on economic needs versus cultural resistance, examining a path forward for global stability.
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Rising Powers May Be Running Out Of Steam
- Michael Beckley argues the era of fast-rising powers is ending due to slower demographics, weaker tech gains, and limited conquest tools.
- The near-term aftermath may still be violent as stagnant incumbents and struggling states react to decline.
Past Growth Drivers Won't Repeat Exactly
- Chris Preble finds Beckley's historical case convincing that 19th/20th-century factors that enabled rapid rises are unlikely to repeat.
- He doubts emerging technologies like AI will deliver the same revolutionary productivity surge across a single rising power.
New Weapons Cut Both Ways
- Precision weapons and drones raise defense costs for aggressors but can also mislead authoritarian leaders into thinking quick victories are possible.
- Chris doubts Beckley's claim that such tech both entrenches the status quo and increases temptations for risky aggression.
