Hanna Notte, Director of the Eurasian Nonproliferation Program, talks about Russia's evolving role in the Middle East. She highlights the impact of Russia's embrace of anti-Western forces like Iran and the consequences of its strategic partnership with them. The complexities of Russia's involvement in Syria are discussed, along with the necessity for Gulf states to counterbalance that influence. The intricate dynamics between Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China are examined, providing insight into shifting global security landscapes.
Russia's foreign policy in the Middle East has become more confrontational towards the West, primarily influenced by the ongoing instability after Ukraine's invasion.
The downfall of the Assad regime in Syria has significantly weakened Russia's influence, as new power dynamics favor Israel and complicate relations with Iran and HTS.
Deep dives
Shifts in Russian Foreign Policy in the Middle East
Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, its foreign policy in the Middle East has shifted towards a more confrontational stance against the West. The complexities of the region have influenced Russia's approach to different issues, including its engagement with Syria and the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict. As Russia's interests have evolved, there has been a noticeable tilt away from a balanced strategy towards more anti-Western forces, particularly Iran and its allies. Despite some initial expectations that Russia could benefit politically from the conflict following the Hamas attack on Israel, the upheaval and resulting instability have ultimately positioned Russia weaker in the region than before.
The Fall of the Assad Regime in Syria
The recent downfall of the Assad regime in Syria has fundamentally altered the landscape of power in the country, marking a significant loss for Russia. This unexpected shift has led to a reduced Russian influence, particularly as Israel has capitalized on the chaos to reclaim territories and Iran has struggled to maintain a foothold. The emergence of HaYat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) as a dominant force in Syria complicates the situation further; HTS has assured Russia that its focus is on opposing Assad rather than Russia's interests. As Russia navigates this new terrain of power dynamics, the priority appears to be retaining strategic bases and ensuring some level of influence amidst ongoing negotiations.
Russia and Iran's Evolving Relationship
The partnership between Russia and Iran has deepened amid the backdrop of geopolitical upheaval and strategic interests, particularly following the developments in Ukraine. Recent agreements between the two nations indicate a move towards closer military and strategic cooperation, yet they lack mutual defense commitments typical of similar alliances. This suggests a cautious approach from Russia, wary of entangling itself in potential conflicts involving Iran, particularly concerning military actions by Israel. While both nations share dissatisfaction with the current international order, their cooperation remains largely bilateral, characterized by mutual dependence rather than a unified ideological alignment.
The Trump Factor and Future U.S. Strategy
With the inauguration of Trump as President, there are expectations that U.S. policy in the Middle East may create openings for influencing Russia-Iran relations, although the scope for significant leverage appears limited. Trump's history of focusing on bilateral, high-visibility agreements suggests a preference for surface-level victories over intricate diplomacy, which could inadvertently empower Iran amidst its current vulnerabilities. However, experts suggest that while Trump's stance may temporarily shift dynamics, the long-term trajectory of the Russia-Iran relationship is likely to continue its deepening despite any pressure from the U.S. Ultimately, the challenge for the U.S. lies in effectively navigating this complex geopolitical landscape to exploit potential weaknesses in the Russia-Iran alliance.
Maria spoke with Hanna Notte and Natasha Hall about the new balance of forces in the Middle East at the start of 2025, and what the current geopolitical situation in the region means for Russia.
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