In this podcast, James Burke discusses the future of scarcity and abundance, while Matt Novak explores retro futurism. They analyze why we struggle to predict the future and how history shapes progress. Unveil the interconnectedness of inventions and societal impacts of technology. Delve into societal fragmentation in the digital age and the implications of living in isolated cyber worlds. Explore equality of opportunity and access to technology, along with unconscious brain responses to smoking-related stimuli.
Present bias skews future projections based on current desires and decisions.
Invention history reveals a collaborative process rather than individual genius.
Societal structures must adapt to technological changes and potential abundance in the future.
Deep dives
Connection Between Present Bias and Predicting the Future
Present bias influences our projections of the future, making us believe that our current desires and decisions will remain consistent over time. The difficulty in perceiving the future 'self' leads to inaccurate predictions. Movies and fiction, like 'Just Imagine' and 'Sleeper,' present exaggerated futures based on present fears. This phenomenon relates to psychological biases like hyperbolic discounting and consistency bias.
Impact of Historical Figures on Innovation
The perception of history often highlights individual innovators as driving forces, overlooking the collaborative nature of progress. Great men myth credits individuals disproportionately, neglecting the collective effort behind inventions. Concepts of intellectual property and innovation indebtedness challenge the myth of sole genius. The complexity of invention involves borrowing, synthesis, and shared contributions, debunking the myth of solitary invention.
Education, Future Policymaking, and Democracy
Education and governance must adapt rapidly to technological changes, addressing the growing dichotomy between societal structures and individual freedoms in the digital age. Institutions like the 'Department of the Future' could leverage big data and public input for informed decision-making. The democratic landscape faces challenges in representing diverse views effectively and necessitates new civics education to navigate the evolving digital society.
Transition from Scarcity to Abundance
The podcast delved into the shift from societies historically managing scarcity to facing an era of potential abundance due to technologies like nano fabricators. It highlighted how societal structures and cultural values evolved over millennia to address scarcity crises, shaping our present-day norms. The discussion underscored the challenge of transitioning to a society where traditional values tied to scarcity may become irrelevant, necessitating a complete reboot of societal structures and values.
Cultural Shifts in the Face of Abundance
Exploring the impact of abundant resources on cultural values, the podcast raised questions about the need for a new value system in a world where scarcity is no longer a prevalent issue. The episode contemplated the potential consequences of advancements like 3D printing and nanotechnology on societal norms, challenging the current paradigms of sharing and communal values. It emphasized the necessity of reevaluating long-standing beliefs and adapting to a future where individuals may navigate personalized digital universes, leading to significant shifts in societal interactions and cultural frameworks.
If you love educational entertainment – programs about science, nature, history, technology and everything in between – it is a safe bet that the creators of those shows were heavily influenced by the founding fathers of science communication: Carl Sagan, David Attenborough, and James Burke.
In this episode of the You Are Not So Smart Podcast we sit down with James Burke and discuss the past, the present, and where he sees us heading in the future. Burke says we must soon learn how to deal with a world in which scarcity is scarce, abundance is abundant, and home manufacturing can produce just about anything you desire.
James Burke is a legendary science historian who created the landmark BBC series Connections which provided an alternative view of history and change by replacing the traditional “Great Man” timeline with an interconnected web in which all people influence one another to blindly direct the flow of progress. Burke is currently writing a new book about the coming age of abundance, and he continues to work on his Knowledge Web project.
We also sit down with Matt Novak, creator and curator of Paleofuture, a blog that explores retro futurism, sifting through the many ways people in the past predicted how the future would turn out, sometimes correctly, mostly not.
Together, Burke and Novak help us understand why we are to terrible at predicting the future and what we can learn about how history truly unfolds so we can better imagine who we will be in the decades to come.
After the interview, I discuss a news story about how cigarettes affect the way your brain interprets cigarette advertising.
