The Seen and the Unseen - hosted by Amit Varma Ep 432: Vasant Dhar's Lifetime in Artificial Intelligence
Vasant Dhar, a professor at NYU Stern and an AI pioneer, shares his extensive journey in artificial intelligence, from the 1970s to the present. He discusses how tools like ChatGPT have transformed public engagement with AI. Vasant debunks common myths surrounding AI and elaborates on its implications for human cognition. He reflects on the balance between technology and human roles in education and warns of AI's risks, including the potential erosion of truth. The conversation navigates exciting possibilities and serious challenges in our rapidly evolving AI landscape.
03:27:40
Conversations Expanded An Interdisciplinary View
- Podcast conversations broadened Dhar's mind and pushed him interdisciplinary, especially on judgment variability and serendipity.
- He credits guests like Kahneman and Tetlock for reframing his questions about human cognition and institutions.
Superforecasters Reveal Human Variance
- Human judgment shows huge variability, but trained forecasters reduce error via outside-view thinking.
- Dhar highlights Tetlock's superforecasters as models for disciplined, debiased reasoning.
A Car Crash Sparked The Book
- Dhar nearly died in a car accident and used that clarity to prioritize relationships and finally write his book.
- He wrote the first two chapters the same week and then treated writing like an LLM: iterate daily and keep momentum.
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Intro
00:00 • 2min
How GPT changed public engagement with AI
02:18 • 2min
Why AI's expertise vs common-sense distinction collapsed
03:52 • 12min
Common AI myths and counterintuitive truths
15:58 • 14min
The limits of language in explaining cognition
30:20 • 10min
Podcasting, serendipity and shaping ideas
40:15 • 8min
What guests taught him about human judgment
47:58 • 6min
AI reveals human strengths and weaknesses
53:33 • 11min
What AI taught him about the human brain
01:04:17 • 2min
From knowledge to wisdom: teaching and connection
01:06:31 • 5min
Life clarity after a near-death accident
01:11:25 • 9min
Newsletter as flow; book as stock
01:20:09 • 4min
Ad break
01:23:56 • 1min
The podcast's unexpected lessons on higher education
01:25:06 • 4min
Will AI replace teachers? Roles that remain human
01:29:02 • 6min
Which educators survive the AI shift
01:35:11 • 6min
AI's risks: becoming a cognitive crutch
01:41:30 • 7min
How Vasant uses AI: research and judgment checks
01:48:41 • 3min
AI paradigms: expert systems to general intelligence
01:51:38 • 13min
AI as a new, uncontrollable general purpose technology
02:04:27 • 8min
Three core fears: takeover, big-tech, and state power
02:12:45 • 11min
Deepfakes, accountability and the Wild West
02:23:42 • 9min
Democracy, norms and governing AI
02:32:38 • 7min
What laws or rules should we pursue?
02:39:28 • 7min
Truth, content generation and cascading biases
02:46:06 • 9min
When to trust AI: predictability versus cost
02:54:54 • 5min
Agents and the Damodaran bot experiment
02:59:38 • 8min
Personal agents and hybrid human futures
03:07:44 • 2min
Why Vasant studies smell and medical detection
03:09:44 • 11min
Utopia and dystopia for AI's next 15 years
03:20:43 • 6min
Outro
03:26:49 • 48sec
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He's been working in AI since the late 1970s, and started a pioneering machine learning hedge fund in the 1990s. Now he's a professor, a podcaster, a Substacker, a yoda -- and has just written a cracking book on the subject. Vasant Dhar joins Amit Varma in episode 432 of The Seen and the Unseen to discuss the life and times of AI through the life and times of Vasant Dhar. (FOR FULL LINKED SHOW NOTES, GO TO SEENUNSEEN.IN.) Also check out: 1. Vasant Dhar on Twitter, LinkedIn, Google Scholar and NYU Stern. 2. Thinking With Machines: The Brave New World of AI -- Vasant Dhar. 3. Brave New World -- Vasant Dhar's podcast. 4. Vasant Dhar's Brave New World on Substack. 5. Brave New World — Episode 203 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vasant Dhar). 6. Brave New World -- Aldous Huxley. 7. Death of a Salesman -- Arthur Miller. 8. Aldous Huxley interviewed by Mike Wallace. 9. Anil Seth On The Science of Consciousness – Episode 94 of Brave New World. 10. How the Mind Works -- Steven Pinker. 11. Anthony Zador on How our Brains Work — Episode 35 of Brave New World. 12. The Naked Sun -- Isaac Asimov. 13. Human and Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare — Episode 4 of Brave New World (w Eric Topol). 14. Daniel Kahneman on How Noise Hampers Judgement — Episode 21 of Brave New World. 15. The Nature of Intelligence — Episode 7 of Brave New World (w Yann LeCun). 16. Philip Tetlock on the Art of Forecasting — Episode 31 of Brave New World. 17. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction — Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner. 18. "When you control the mail..." -- Clip from Seinfeld. 19. The Future of Liberal Education — Episode 11 of Brave New World (w Michael S Roth). 20. The Surface Area of Serendipity -- Episode 39 of Everything is Everything. 21. When Should We Trust Machines? -- Vasant Dhar's TEDx talk from 2018. 22. From Strength to Strength -- Arthur Brooks. 23. The Innovator's Dilemma -- Clayton Christensen. 24. Raghu Sundaram on Building a Great University -- Episode 88 of Brave New World. 25. Power and Prediction -- Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans and Avi Goldfarb. 26. The Paperclip Maximiser. 27. The Wealth of Nations -- Adam Smith. 28. The Theory of Moral Sentiments -- Adam Smith. 29. Yes Minister and Yes Prime Minister — Jonathan Lynn and Antony Jay. 30. Aswath Damodaran on Investing — Episode 33 of Brave New World. 31. The Damodaran Bot. 32. Dmitry Rinberg on the Mysteries of Smell — Episode 62 of Brave New World. 33. Alex Wiltschko on the Sense of Smell — Episode 81 of Brave New World. 34. Sandeep Robert Datta on Smell and the Brain -- Episode 90 of Brave New World. 35. Alex Wiltschko on Digitizing Scent -- Episode 97 of Brave New World. 36. A Billion Wicked Thoughts -- Ogi Ogas and Sai Gaddam. 37. Being You: A New Science of Consciousness -- Anil Seth. 38. Noise -- Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony and Cass Sunstein. 39. Thinking, Fast and Slow -- Daniel Kahneman. This episode is sponsored by CTQ Compounds. Check out The Daily Reader and FutureStack. Use the code UNSEEN for Rs 2500 off. Amit Varma runs a course called Life Lessons, which aims to be a launchpad towards learning essential life skills all of you need. For more details, and to sign up, click here. Amit and Ajay Shah also bring out a weekly YouTube show, Everything is Everything. Have you watched it yet? You must! And have you read Amit's newsletter? Subscribe right away to The India Uncut Newsletter! It's free! Also check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. Episode art: 'The Mage' by Simahina.