Jude Blanchette, a Freeman Chair in China Studies, teams up with Manoj Kewalramani, an expert in Indo-Pacific studies, to dissect Sino-India relations. They dive into the complexities of interpreting Beijing’s dynamics and the evolution of dialogue under Xi Jinping. Challenges like the Doklam standoff and the strategic roles of SCO and BRICS are discussed, along with India's rising prospects as a global supply chain alternative to China. Their insights illuminate the intricacies of geopolitical rivalries and economic interdependencies.
The complexity of Sino-India relations stems from a strategic impasse where both economic interdependence and military tensions coexist, complicating dialogue and escalation processes.
Chinese perceptions of India are largely influenced by great power competition with the US, obscuring India's autonomous strategic ambitions and increasing nationalism under its current government.
Deep dives
Understanding China's Governance Through a New Lens
The evolving political landscape of China necessitates a nuanced understanding of its governance, likened to a 'stained glass window' rather than a 'black box.' This metaphor illustrates how the Chinese Communist Party projects carefully curated images and narratives to both domestic and international audiences. The challenge lies in recognizing these patterns, as accessing honest discourse has become increasingly difficult under Xi Jinping's leadership. Analysts emphasize that while the flow of information is controlled, there are still patterns that can be deciphered to gain insight into policy directions.
The Growth of China-Watching in India
The community of analysts studying China in India has expanded significantly since the 2017 Doklam standoff, marking a newfound interest in Sino-India relations. Analysts have observed a shift towards a more hawkish perspective, stemming from increasing tensions and perceived threats from China. However, the maturity of this community remains in development, with traditional institutions still lacking the depth seen in Western counterparts. The discourse spans a spectrum, ranging from hawks who focus on military threats to those advocating for deeper engagement based on historical ties and mutual interests.
The Complexity of Sino-Indian Relationships
Current Sino-Indian relations are characterized by a strategic impasse, following significant military skirmishes and an absence of meaningful dialogue at high political levels. Despite attempts at military disengagement in the Ladakh region, both sides have maintained a large troop presence, reflecting ongoing tensions. While trade continues to grow, achieving de-escalation remains challenging due to existing friction points and a skewed economic relationship heavily favoring China. Analysts indicate that India approaches China as both a threat and a necessary economic partner, highlighting the complexity of their interdependent relationship.
Global Dynamics: China's Perception of India as a Rival
Chinese perspectives on India often revolve around the nation's relations with the United States, viewing India through the lens of great power competition. This US-centric outlook hampers a clearer understanding of India's autonomous foreign policy ambitions and strategic interests. Chinese experts note the increasing aggressiveness of India's current government, attributing this to rising nationalism and challenges to China's influence in the region. Overall, Chinese discourse reflects a blend of admiration for India's potential and concern over its growing alignment with the West, complicating the bilateral engagement dynamic.
In this episode of Pekingology, Freeman Chair in China Studies Jude Blanchette is joined by Manoj Kewalramani, Fellow for China Studies and the Chairperson of the Indo-Pacific Studies Programme at the Takshashila Institution. He is also a non-resident Senior Associate with the Freeman Chair in China Studies, at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. They discuss interpreting Beijing's actions and Sino-India relations.
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