Ecommerce Playbook: Numbers, Struggles & Growth A Live Demo of How to Forecast Your Q4 Against Tariffs
Aug 28, 2025
Discover how to effectively forecast your business finances even amid tariff uncertainties. Learn the dynamic impact of gross margins on revenue potential and why budgets need a reset during cost fluctuations. Explore the surprising long-term weaknesses of Black Friday cohorts and how understanding customer lifetime value can enhance spending efficiency. Gain insights into creating clarity and actionable plans, rather than just making predictions, to navigate the complex e-commerce landscape.
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Model Seasonality And Spend-Efficiency Curves
- The Spend & aMER model maps historical spend-to-efficiency curves by month to set realistic budgets.
- It uses contribution margin and seasonality to show how much you can spend at different goals.
Reset Budgets After Tariff-Driven COGS Changes
- Recalculate budgets immediately when COGS or tariffs change to find the new break-even spend.
- Use the model to set the updated budget and AMER target rather than guessing.
Gross Margin Shrinks Revenue Potential
- A higher cost profile reduces the point you can push on the spend curve, shrinking revenue potential.
- You must choose between sacrificing efficiency or volume to hit the same goals.