"Bending, not breaking": The global economy’s new normal

Oct 24, 2025

Jahangir Aziz, head of Emerging Markets Research at J.P. Morgan, and Jay Barry, head of Global Rates Strategy, dive deep into the shifting global economic landscape. They discuss how AI is driving growth and why tariffs haven’t significantly disrupted supply chains. Aziz outlines the U.S. economy's ability to bend without breaking, despite inflation challenges. Barry explores the Treasury market outlook, including anticipated Fed rate cuts and potential funding gaps. Together, they highlight the evolving dynamics of U.S.-China relations and the bonds market's future.

Ask episode

AI Snips

Chapters

Transcript

Episode notes

INSIGHT

AI Overtakes Tariffs As Macro Driver

AI has overtaken tariffs as the dominant macro narrative at the IMF‑World Bank meetings.
Tech investment, especially data centers and equipment, is supporting a large share of recent US and global growth.

INSIGHT

Tariff Impact Has Been Muted — For Now

Tariff transmission to inflation and supply chains has been more muted than feared due to exemptions, front‑loading, and transshipments.
Those buffers are limited, so tariff impact on inflation is likely to rise in coming months.

INSIGHT

Bending, Not Breaking — With Sticky Inflation

The US economy is likely to 'bend, not break' with growth supported by tech investment but facing sticky inflation.
Wage dynamics and reduced immigration keep core inflation persistent even as employment softens.

Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode

Get the app

In this episode, Joyce Chang, chair of Global Research at J.P. Morgan, is joined by Jahangir Aziz, head of Emerging Markets Research, and Jay Barry, head of Global Rates Strategy. Together, they explore how AI is reshaping global economic narratives, why tech innovation trumps tariffs, the evolving U.S.–China relationship and more. They also discuss other topics including stagflation risks, shifting trade dynamics and the outlook for U.S. Treasury markets. What does the global economy’s new normal look like?

This episode was recorded on October 21, 2025.

This communication has been prepared based upon information from sources believed to be reliable, but J.P. Morgan does not warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to any disclosures relative to J.P. Morgan and/or its affiliates and an analyst's involvement with any company (or security, other financial product or other asset class) that may be the subject of this communication. Any opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This communication is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. J.P. Morgan Research does not provide individually tailored investment advice. Any opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. You must make your own independent decisions regarding any securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned or related to the information herein. Periodic updates may be provided on companies, issuers or industries based on specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information. However, J.P. Morgan may be restricted from updating information contained in this communication for regulatory or other reasons. This communication may not be redistributed or retransmitted, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of J.P. Morgan. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. Receipt and review of this information constitutes your agreement not to redistribute or retransmit the contents and information contained in this communication without first obtaining express permission from an authorized officer of J.P. Morgan.