Making Sense

Jahangir Aziz, head of Emerging Markets Research at J.P. Morgan, and Jay Barry, head of Global Rates Strategy, dive deep into the shifting global economic landscape. They discuss how AI is driving growth and why tariffs haven’t significantly disrupted supply chains. Aziz outlines the U.S. economy's ability to bend without breaking, despite inflation challenges. Barry explores the Treasury market outlook, including anticipated Fed rate cuts and potential funding gaps. Together, they highlight the evolving dynamics of U.S.-China relations and the bonds market's future.

Martin Kallström, CEO of Lynx Asset Management and a veteran in actuarial and alternative investments, shares his expertise on trend-following strategies. He explains how these strategies capture long-term market shifts and the unique culture that differentiates Lynx from competitors. Kallström discusses the evolving role of machine learning and the importance of understanding data, while emphasizing the significant human element in trading models. He also reveals Lynx’s exciting plans to leverage LLMs in upcoming systematic equity programs.

Rosh Wijayarathna and David Bauer of J.P. Morgan delve into the booming venture capital landscape, highlighting AI's significant market share and defense tech's rapid expansion. Rosh shares insights on the importance of patient investor relationships and evolving fundraising dynamics. David discusses the active IPO pipeline and what public markets seek: strong growth and healthy margins. Both emphasize the growing need for companies to integrate AI into their narratives while navigating strategic M&A opportunities and private equity interests.

William Tuttle, Executive Director at J.P. Morgan's Global Engagement team with deep roots in U.S. intelligence and foreign policy, dives into the current U.S. policy landscape. He explains the resurgence of tariffs, driven by national security and economic pressures. Tuttle explores the potential impacts on growth and inflation and discusses the global race for AI leadership, contrasting U.S. innovation with China's rapid advancements. He also highlights how these policy shifts are changing alliances and the overall geopolitical landscape.

Experts discuss the U.S. government shutdown and its economic implications. They explore political priorities, ongoing negotiation statuses, and potential lengths of the shutdown. Historical effects on GDP and employment are examined, contrasting routine shutdowns with the risks of a debt crisis. Market reactions are assessed, with a focus on treasury issuance and the importance of payroll data. The conversation highlights broader sentiment risks and potential layoffs influenced by political negotiations.

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research at J.P. Morgan, shares her insights on how geopolitical tensions, particularly from the Ukraine conflict, are affecting global oil supply. She explains why oil demand remains robust despite fears of a slowdown and discusses the dynamics of metal demand among China, the US, and Europe. Natasha also analyzes how historical Fed rate cuts impact commodities and the reasons behind gold's rally during these cycles, revealing intriguing links between financial policies and commodity prices.

Ralph Sueppel, Managing Director at MacroSynergy, brings his expertise in quantitative finance and macroeconomics to the discussion. He explains the significance of point-in-time data in developing reliable investment strategies through J.P. Morgan's Quantamental System. Ralph dives into the common pitfalls of revised data affecting backtests, and highlights where macro alpha can be found across various asset classes. He also touches on using machine learning for sector predictions and discusses why many investors overlook the value of macro insights.

Scott Wilcoxen, Global Head of Digital Infrastructure Investment Banking at J.P. Morgan, shares his insights into the booming realm of data centers and connectivity. He discusses the staggering capital required to fuel AI and cloud expansion, as well as the unique financing challenges involved. Scott highlights the risks of overbuilding and the vital role operational expertise plays in this high-stakes environment. His expertise sheds light on how J.P. Morgan positions itself to navigate these complexities, offering unmatched support across the capital stack.

Kara Kennedy, co-head of Kinexus at J.P. Morgan, dives into the dynamic realm of digital assets and decentralized finance. She discusses the transformative potential of DeFi for resilience and transparency, while addressing challenging interoperability and privacy issues. Regulatory shifts such as MICA and the impact of U.S. policy are also highlighted, showcasing how they're reshaping the industry. Moreover, Kara reveals insights about J.P. Morgan's Conexus initiative and the rising interest in tokenized assets, pinpointing key trends shaping the future of finance.

In this episode,  Ben Wilson, head of Natural Resources M&A at J.P. Morgan, is joined by Kevin Colborne, co-head of North American Mining , and Andrew Castaldo, co-head of Mid-Cap M&A. The group recaps J.P. Morgan's involvement in the public-private partnership between the U.S. Department of Defense and MP Materials. They explore the strategic importance of rare earth magnets, the national security implications of the deal, and the unique partnership forged to strengthen America's supply chain in critical mineral commodities.    This episode was recorded on August 25, 2025.   This material was prepared by certain personnel of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates and subsidiaries worldwide and not the firm’s research department. It is for informational purposes only, is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase, sale or tender of any financial instrument and does not constitute a commitment, undertaking, offer or solicitation by any JPMorgan Chase entity to extend or arrange credit or provide any other products or services to any person or entity.  © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved.