Making Sense

The U.S. continued to add jobs at a steady pace in May, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% for the third straight month. Looking ahead however, factors including tariffs and immigration policy could lead to a slowdown in the labor market. What does all this mean for the health of the consumer as well as the wider economy? Join chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli and Lauren Brice from the U.S. Rates Sales team as they unpack the latest numbers.     This episode was recorded on June 6, 2025.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. JPMorgan Chase & Co. or its affiliates and/or subsidiaries (collectively, J.P. Morgan) normally make a market and trade as principal in securities, other financial products and other asset classes that may be discussed in this communication.  This communication has been prepared based upon information from sources believed to be reliable, but J.P. Morgan does not warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to any disclosures relative to J.P. Morgan and/or its affiliates and an analyst's involvement with any company (or security, other financial product or other asset class) that may be the subject of this communication. Any opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This communication is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. J.P. Morgan Research does not provide individually tailored investment advice. Any opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. You must make your own independent decisions regarding any securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned or related to the information herein. Periodic updates may be provided on companies, issuers or industries based on specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information. However, J.P. Morgan may be restricted from updating information contained in this communication for regulatory or other reasons. This communication may not be redistributed or retransmitted, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of J.P. Morgan. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. Receipt and review of this information constitutes your agreement not to redistribute or retransmit the contents and information contained in this communication without first obtaining express permission from an authorized officer of J.P. Morgan.  Copyright 2025, JPMorganChase & Co. All rights reserved. 

In this discussion, Keith Canton, the Head of Americas Equity Capital Markets, and Gaurav Maria, the Head of U.S. Equity-Linked Capital Markets, delve into the IPO market's recent performance. They analyze the decline in IPO volumes, driven by market volatility and geopolitical tensions. The duo highlights innovative strategies within the convertible market and discusses the emerging sector diversity in IPOs. With cautious optimism, they explore factors that could spark a resurgence, including refinancing opportunities and market resilience.

In this discussion, Brian Fitzsimmons, Head of North America Rates Securities Trading at J.P. Morgan, shares his expertise on the U.S. Treasury cash-futures basis trade. He explains the intricacies of this arbitrage strategy and its relevance amid market volatility. The conversation dives into the dynamics of leverage, regulatory impacts on treasury demand, and the implications for financial stability. They also explore the challenges posed by increased Treasury issuance and the importance of managing liquidity and counterparty credit risk.

In this engaging discussion, Patrick Griffin, a Managing Director at JP Morgan, shares his expertise in navigating the bank loan market. He highlights how this market differs from other credit avenues, emphasizing borrower-lender relationships. Key insights include current trends of declining mergers and increased refinancing, alongside strategies for CFOs to optimize capital raising. Patrick also discusses the importance of flexibility in credit agreements and building robust bank relationships to enhance financial outcomes.

Mark Fleming-Williams, Head of Data Sourcing at CFM and creator of The Alternative Data Podcast, joins a dynamic discussion with Eloise Goulder from J.P. Morgan. They dive into the value and challenges of alternative data in finance, detailing effective methods for data assessment and the growing competition in the field. Fleming-Williams shares insights on the evolution of alternative data, highlighting credit card data's significance and how AI is transforming data analysis. They emphasize the importance of relationships in navigating this complex landscape.

Ray Raimondi, the Head of North America Strategic Investor Group M&A at J.P. Morgan, shares insights on the evolving landscape for financial sponsors in 2025. They discuss how recent market changes are steering investment strategies, especially in sectors like business services and healthcare. Raimondi emphasizes the adaptability required for mergers and acquisitions amid economic uncertainties. The conversation also highlights the rise of sponsor-owned companies and the importance of local insights in developing innovative capital solutions.

Karen Li, head of Hong Kong Equity Research at JP Morgan, provides keen insights into the booming humanoid robotics industry, particularly in China. She discusses how these AI-powered machines are set to address labor shortages and transform sectors like manufacturing and healthcare. The conversation highlights the increasing demand for humanoid robots and their potential roles in hazardous environments. Li also examines China's competitive edge in manufacturing and the growing interest from investors in this revolutionary market.

Nora Szentivanyi, a senior global economist at J.P. Morgan, and Natasha Condon, the Global Head of Trade Sales at J.P. Morgan, delve into the complexities of international trade amidst rising tariffs. They highlight how tariffs disrupt supply chains and influence business sentiment. The discussion emphasizes strategies for companies to manage risks and the crucial role of liquidity. Additionally, they reflect on historical trade tensions and their lessons for today’s economic landscape, helping businesses navigate an ever-changing trade environment.

Dive into the dynamic world of credit portfolio trading, where recent market volatility is reshaping strategies. Discover how J.P. Morgan's innovative risk management techniques are setting them apart. The discussion highlights the critical role of technology in enhancing liquidity and closing data gaps for smoother trading experiences. Plus, get excited about emerging tools like Vida B2one, which promise to revolutionize portfolio management and open up new opportunities for investors.

The discussion kicks off with a shift from bearish to bullish sentiment in U.S. equities, driven by optimistic trade deals and strong tech earnings. Insights into sector performance, especially in technology and finance, highlight both potential gains and looming risks. The conversation also delves into international equity landscapes, comparing European markets to U.S. challenges, particularly impacts from currency fluctuations and tariffs. Ultimately, the team suggests a tactical investment strategy as economic indicators signal caution ahead.