Making Sense

The U.S. economy showed surprising strength in June, adding 147,000 jobs and lowering the unemployment rate to 4.1%. However, much of this increase came from government employment, raising questions about private sector growth. Insightful discussions revolve around the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts and how current economic data influences these decisions. The podcast also touches on the challenges posed by trade policy and its effects on consumer spending, making for a comprehensive look at the evolving financial landscape.

Fabio Bassi, Head of Cross-Asset Strategy at J.P. Morgan, and Jay Barry, Head of Global Rates Strategy, delve into the current economic landscape. They discuss the enduring uncertainties shaping the market, including trade tensions and fiscal policies. The impact of rising U.S. tariffs on global growth and inflation is analyzed, alongside the resilience of corporate markets. Additionally, they explore the outlook for emerging markets amid geopolitical risks and the stabilization of oil prices, highlighting investor opportunities and challenges for the second half of 2025.

Michael Pomada, President and CEO of Crabel Capital Management, discusses the firm's transformation since 2008, evolving from manual to systematic trading while growing assets to over $5 billion. He emphasizes the significance of adapting investment strategies and the role of technology in risk management. Pomada also shares insights on cultivating a positive workplace culture, encouraging innovation, and promoting accountability among team members. Their engaging conversation showcases the balance between fun and performance in driving success.

Kari Vatanen, head of Asset Allocation and Alternatives at Elo, one of Finland's largest pension funds, discusses the evolving landscape of investing. He highlights the significance of hedge funds and illiquid assets in portfolio diversification amidst market uncertainties. Vatanen shares insights on Elo's asset allocation strategy, emphasizing a balanced 60-40 portfolio approach. The conversation also touches on the challenges of valuing illiquid assets and the need for transparency and collaboration in asset management, especially during inflationary periods.

Patrick Hargreaves, the CEO of AKO Capital and PM of the AKO Capital Global Fund, dives into the firm's quality investment philosophy and the importance of identifying 'patterns of quality' in companies. He explains how specialized teams in market research, forensic accounting, and data science work alongside analysts to enhance investment decisions. The discussion also highlights the role of machine learning in investment processes while emphasizing the enduring significance of human judgment. Hargreaves shares insights on long-term strategies and learning from past mistakes.

Chris Andrew, the Head of Market Structure and Regulatory Change in EMEA, brings his expertise in European capital markets to the discussion. He and Eloise Goulder explore the impressive 38% surge in European trading volumes, driven by geopolitical shifts and sector dynamics. They highlight the potential for European equities to outperform the US market. The conversation also dives into the urgent need for reforms to integrate capital markets across Europe and the challenges of creating a savings and investments union to enhance security and funding.

Christian O’Donnell, Managing Director at J.P. Morgan, dives into the rapidly evolving world of investment-grade private credit. He highlights how this market differs from public credit, showcasing its unique benefits for corporations and the growing demand for capital. O’Donnell discusses tailored debt solutions, the critical role of financial institutions in navigating risks, and how the landscape is changing with more public investors entering the space. Expect insights into market dynamics and strategies for capital-intensive businesses.

As the private credit market continues to grow, investors are diversifying strategies across various asset classes. However, recent economic uncertainty could reshape the sector’s ongoing evolution. In this episode, Leland Price from the FICC Market Structure and Liquidity Strategy team joins Jake Pollack, head of North America Credit Trading & Global Credit Financing, for a discussion on emerging challenges and opportunities in this space. From direct lending and collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) to private credit ETFs, tune in to better understand the shifting landscape of private credit.     This episode was recorded on May 5, 2025.   The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of JPMorgan Chase & Co, and its affiliates, together J.P. Morgan, and do not constitute research or recommendation advice or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. They are not issued by Research but are a solicitation under CFTC Rule 1.71. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you, and may not be available in all jurisdictions. J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed. The FICC market structure publications, or to one, newsletters, mentioned in this podcast are available for J.P. Morgan clients. Please contact your J.P. Morgan sales representative should you wish to receive these. For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved.

The U.S. continued to add jobs at a steady pace in May, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% for the third straight month. Looking ahead however, factors including tariffs and immigration policy could lead to a slowdown in the labor market. What does all this mean for the health of the consumer as well as the wider economy? Join chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli and Lauren Brice from the U.S. Rates Sales team as they unpack the latest numbers.     This episode was recorded on June 6, 2025.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. JPMorgan Chase & Co. or its affiliates and/or subsidiaries (collectively, J.P. Morgan) normally make a market and trade as principal in securities, other financial products and other asset classes that may be discussed in this communication.  This communication has been prepared based upon information from sources believed to be reliable, but J.P. Morgan does not warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to any disclosures relative to J.P. Morgan and/or its affiliates and an analyst's involvement with any company (or security, other financial product or other asset class) that may be the subject of this communication. Any opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This communication is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. J.P. Morgan Research does not provide individually tailored investment advice. Any opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. You must make your own independent decisions regarding any securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned or related to the information herein. Periodic updates may be provided on companies, issuers or industries based on specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information. However, J.P. Morgan may be restricted from updating information contained in this communication for regulatory or other reasons. This communication may not be redistributed or retransmitted, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of J.P. Morgan. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. Receipt and review of this information constitutes your agreement not to redistribute or retransmit the contents and information contained in this communication without first obtaining express permission from an authorized officer of J.P. Morgan.  Copyright 2025, JPMorganChase & Co. All rights reserved. 

In this discussion, Keith Canton, the Head of Americas Equity Capital Markets, and Gaurav Maria, the Head of U.S. Equity-Linked Capital Markets, delve into the IPO market's recent performance. They analyze the decline in IPO volumes, driven by market volatility and geopolitical tensions. The duo highlights innovative strategies within the convertible market and discusses the emerging sector diversity in IPOs. With cautious optimism, they explore factors that could spark a resurgence, including refinancing opportunities and market resilience.