Making Sense

William Tuttle, Executive Director at J.P. Morgan's Global Engagement team with deep roots in U.S. intelligence and foreign policy, dives into the current U.S. policy landscape. He explains the resurgence of tariffs, driven by national security and economic pressures. Tuttle explores the potential impacts on growth and inflation and discusses the global race for AI leadership, contrasting U.S. innovation with China's rapid advancements. He also highlights how these policy shifts are changing alliances and the overall geopolitical landscape.

Experts discuss the U.S. government shutdown and its economic implications. They explore political priorities, ongoing negotiation statuses, and potential lengths of the shutdown. Historical effects on GDP and employment are examined, contrasting routine shutdowns with the risks of a debt crisis. Market reactions are assessed, with a focus on treasury issuance and the importance of payroll data. The conversation highlights broader sentiment risks and potential layoffs influenced by political negotiations.

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research at J.P. Morgan, shares her insights on how geopolitical tensions, particularly from the Ukraine conflict, are affecting global oil supply. She explains why oil demand remains robust despite fears of a slowdown and discusses the dynamics of metal demand among China, the US, and Europe. Natasha also analyzes how historical Fed rate cuts impact commodities and the reasons behind gold's rally during these cycles, revealing intriguing links between financial policies and commodity prices.

Ralph Sueppel, Managing Director at MacroSynergy, brings his expertise in quantitative finance and macroeconomics to the discussion. He explains the significance of point-in-time data in developing reliable investment strategies through J.P. Morgan's Quantamental System. Ralph dives into the common pitfalls of revised data affecting backtests, and highlights where macro alpha can be found across various asset classes. He also touches on using machine learning for sector predictions and discusses why many investors overlook the value of macro insights.

Scott Wilcoxen, Global Head of Digital Infrastructure Investment Banking at J.P. Morgan, shares his insights into the booming realm of data centers and connectivity. He discusses the staggering capital required to fuel AI and cloud expansion, as well as the unique financing challenges involved. Scott highlights the risks of overbuilding and the vital role operational expertise plays in this high-stakes environment. His expertise sheds light on how J.P. Morgan positions itself to navigate these complexities, offering unmatched support across the capital stack.

Kara Kennedy, co-head of Kinexus at J.P. Morgan, dives into the dynamic realm of digital assets and decentralized finance. She discusses the transformative potential of DeFi for resilience and transparency, while addressing challenging interoperability and privacy issues. Regulatory shifts such as MICA and the impact of U.S. policy are also highlighted, showcasing how they're reshaping the industry. Moreover, Kara reveals insights about J.P. Morgan's Conexus initiative and the rising interest in tokenized assets, pinpointing key trends shaping the future of finance.

In this episode,  Ben Wilson, head of Natural Resources M&A at J.P. Morgan, is joined by Kevin Colborne, co-head of North American Mining , and Andrew Castaldo, co-head of Mid-Cap M&A. The group recaps J.P. Morgan's involvement in the public-private partnership between the U.S. Department of Defense and MP Materials. They explore the strategic importance of rare earth magnets, the national security implications of the deal, and the unique partnership forged to strengthen America's supply chain in critical mineral commodities.    This episode was recorded on August 25, 2025.   This material was prepared by certain personnel of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates and subsidiaries worldwide and not the firm’s research department. It is for informational purposes only, is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase, sale or tender of any financial instrument and does not constitute a commitment, undertaking, offer or solicitation by any JPMorgan Chase entity to extend or arrange credit or provide any other products or services to any person or entity.  © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved.

In this episode, host Daniel Rudnicki Schlumberger, head of Leveraged Finance EMEA at J.P. Morgan, is joined by Andrew Crook, head of Leveraged Finance Sales, and Daniel Lamy, head of European Credit Strategy Research. Together, they unpack the highlights from J.P. Morgan’s 9th European Leveraged Finance Conference, exploring the latest trends, including market resilience, investor sentiment, and the impact of geopolitical and macroeconomic events.   This episode was recorded on September 5, 2025.   This material was prepared by certain personnel of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates and subsidiaries worldwide and not the firm’s research department. It is for informational purposes only, is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase, sale or tender of any financial instrument and does not constitute a commitment, undertaking, offer or solicitation by any JPMorgan Chase entity to extend or arrange credit or provide any other products or services to any person or entity.  © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved.

Evan Junek, Global Head of Corporate Finance Advisory at J.P. Morgan and co-author of the report "Navigating the Future," dives into how AI, energy, and healthcare innovations will transform the corporate landscape. He discusses AI's capacity to boost productivity and GDP, alongside predictions of declining energy prices. Junek sheds light on breakthrough healthcare advancements and their implications for employment and well-being. He also emphasizes the need for businesses to reevaluate their long-term strategies in this rapidly changing environment.

The August jobs report came in weaker than expected, with the U.S. economy adding just 22,000 jobs. The unemployment rate also crept up to 4.3% — the highest in nearly four years, suggesting that labor demand is softening more than supply. Does this all point to a larger rate cut in September? And what’s the latest in the Fed’s battle to preserve its independence? Join chief U.S. economist Mike Feroli and Jenny Shen from the Rates Sales team as they explore what lies ahead for the Fed and the U.S. economy.    This episode was recorded on September 5, 2025.   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. JPMorgan Chase & Co. or its affiliates and/or subsidiaries (collectively, J.P. Morgan) normally make a market and trade as principal in securities, other financial products and other asset classes that may be discussed in this communication.  This communication has been prepared based upon information from sources believed to be reliable, but J.P. Morgan does not warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to any disclosures relative to J.P. Morgan and/or its affiliates and an analyst's involvement with any company (or security, other financial product or other asset class) that may be the subject of this communication. Any opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This communication is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. J.P. Morgan Research does not provide individually tailored investment advice. Any opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. You must make your own independent decisions regarding any securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned or related to the information herein. Periodic updates may be provided on companies, issuers or industries based on specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information. However, J.P. Morgan may be restricted from updating information contained in this communication for regulatory or other reasons. This communication may not be redistributed or retransmitted, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of J.P. Morgan. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. Receipt and review of this information constitutes your agreement not to redistribute or retransmit the contents and information contained in this communication without first obtaining express permission from an authorized officer of J.P. Morgan.  Copyright 2025, JPMorganChase & Co. All rights reserved.