Making Sense

Join Bruce Kasman, Chief Global Economist at J.P. Morgan, Mislav Matejka, Head of Global Equity Strategy, and other experts as they dissect the 2026 market outlook. They discuss the impact of uneven monetary policy and the AI cycle on economies. Kasman highlights sticky inflation trends, while Matejka predicts significant equity gains driven by AI. Stephen Dulake addresses credit market dynamics amidst technological shifts, and Natasha Kaneva shares insights on bearish oil forecasts and bullish gold predictions.

In this discussion, Sarah Isgur, Senior Editor at The Dispatch and Supreme Court expert, teams up with Peter Harrell, a Georgetown Law scholar and former White House aide. They dive into the Supreme Court's challenges to President Trump’s executive power regarding tariffs and independent agencies. Topics include the tension between Congress and the presidency, potential court outcomes, and the implications for market stability. Peter also provides insights for businesses on adapting to changes in tariff authority, making it a must-listen for anyone following legal and economic trends.

Anu Aiyengar, Global Head of Advisory and M&A at J.P. Morgan, and Kevin Foley, Global Head of Capital Markets at J.P. Morgan, share their insights on 2025's investment banking landscape and the outlook for 2026. They discuss the surge in mega deals driving M&A volume and the rollercoaster of investor sentiment and market liquidity. AI's transformative impact on deal structuring and fundraising is also explored. Looking ahead, they emphasize the importance of adaptability, seizing growth opportunities, and preparing for increased IPO activity and capital markets resilience.

Matthew Franklin Lyons, a specialist in global rates trading, and Stephen Jeffries, an expert in emerging market currencies, delve into intriguing dynamics affecting global markets. They discuss the factors behind the yield curve steepening and dissect the carry performance in emerging markets. The duo also reveals investor sentiments, highlighting surprising positioning amid uncertainties. Furthermore, they flag potential risks from AI-driven corporate issuance and vulnerabilities in asset swaps, painting a nuanced picture for 2026's financial landscape.

Andrew Tyler, Global Head of Market Intelligence at J.P. Morgan, and Federico Manicardi, International Head of Market Intelligence, dive into the dynamics of the market as 2025 wraps up. They unpack why global equities have surged, crediting robust macro and earnings growth. The duo spotlights emerging markets' rally, attributing it to dollar weakness and strong earnings. They also detail a strategic investment approach, suggesting a mix of mega-cap tech and cyclicals, while warning of potential risks from geopolitical tensions and shifts in AI valuations.

Chris Wu, Head of U.S. Power Trading at J.P. Morgan, delves into the seismic shifts occurring in the U.S. power market driven by AI data centers. He discusses how skyrocketing electricity demand from these centers is reshaping trading dynamics, while contrasting this surge with past trends linked to electric vehicles. Wu also addresses the slowdown in renewable energy projects, the pivotal roles of natural gas and nuclear power, and the critical need for enhanced energy infrastructure and transmission reforms in light of new market entrants.

Arnaud Jobert, co-head of Strategic Indices at J.P. Morgan, dives into the innovative world of quantitative investment strategies. He discusses the impressive growth of the QIS platform, detailing client demand shifts from retail to institutional. Arnaud highlights the evolution of products like equity vol carry and trend strategies, along with new alpha opportunities emerging from market dynamics. The conversation also touches on leveraging AI for better execution and expanding investment horizons into fixed income, showcasing the future of systematic trading.

In a riveting discussion, Michael Feroli, Chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan, and Jay Barry, Head of Global Rates Strategy, dissect the implications of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. Feroli highlights that the shutdown could deduct around 0.25 percentage points from GDP weekly, leading to weaker consumer sentiment. Meanwhile, Barry delves into Treasury market reactions and potential shifts in Fed expectations. They also explore which sectors are most vulnerable and the broader economic uncertainties caused by missing government data.

Michael Gao, a physician-entrepreneur and president of Smarter Technologies, discusses the revolutionary impact of AI on healthcare. He highlights how AI enhances clinical reasoning and operational efficiency, transforming patient care. Michael underscores the importance of collaboration for responsible AI scaling while addressing the challenges of transparency and control. He predicts funds will shift from administration to direct patient care in the coming years, emphasizing AI's role as an augmentation tool to enhance, not replace, the human experience in medicine.

Lori Schwartz, Global Head of Treasury Services at J.P. Morgan Payments, shares her insights on the burgeoning fintech landscape in the Middle East. She discusses how open banking is breaking down barriers to global money movement and the crucial role of technology in facilitating faster cross-border payments. Lori emphasizes the importance of balancing innovation and security, advocating for responsible prototyping. With a focus on tokenization and blockchain, she highlights how these advancements enhance cash mobility while ensuring trust and risk management.