China's recovery from COVID lockdowns has been less successful than anticipated due to pre-existing imbalances and the government's approach to the pandemic.
The youth unemployment rate in China has doubled since 2019, reaching 20%, with factors such as reliance on the service sector and skills mismatches exacerbating the issue.
Deep dives
China's Post-Reopening Recovery Disappoints
China's anticipated emergence from COVID lockdowns to boost the global economy has not met expectations, as a string of disappointing data raises concerns. The recovery and reopening impulse seemed to have only lasted for one quarter, with the second quarter showing a lackluster performance. Factors contributing to the less-than-anticipated recovery include pre-existing imbalances in the economy and the government's different approach in dealing with the COVID pandemic. Despite some easing signs and restocking, the recovery outlook remains cautious.
Youth Unemployment Rate in China
The youth unemployment rate in China has doubled since 2019, currently standing at 20%. This rise can be attributed to both cyclical and structural factors. The dependence of young workers on the service sector, which has been heavily impacted by the pandemic, contributes to their higher unemployment rate. Additionally, structural factors such as mismatches between the skills of college graduates and the demands of the labor market further exacerbate the problem. Finding effective solutions to address this issue is challenging for the government.
Policy Restraint and Future Outlook
The Chinese government is employing a restrained policy approach in response to the economic weakness. Monetary policy is expected to ease gradually, while fiscal policy is constrained due to limited fiscal resources. The property sector, a crucial driver of the economy, faces downside risks, but stabilization is expected to prevent a sharp decline. Restoring confidence in the growth picture is a significant challenge, as policymakers navigate trade-offs between growth and long-term policy goals. The government's focus on security and its prioritization of structural changes may result in slower economic growth in the medium to longer term.
China's emergence from Covid lockdowns was expected to boost the global economy. But a string of disappointing data is giving investors, policymakers and market watchers a new reason to worry. Goldman Sachs Research’s Hui Shan, chief China economist, explains the drivers behind the outlook for the world’s second-largest economy.
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