Riskgaming “We have an addiction to prediction”
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Mar 14, 2025 Graham Norris is an organizational consultant with a focus on foresight psychology, while Ian Curtiss is an independent scenario designer for Lux Capital. They dive into our innate aversion to uncertainty and how it clouds our ability to predict the future. The pair discuss the psychological barriers that limit effective strategic planning and the importance of scenario thinking. They also highlight the need for alignment between personal ambitions and organizational goals, advocating for innovative gaming methods to navigate unpredictability in decision-making.
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Addiction to Prediction
- People crave predictions and often over-rely on single scenarios.
- Futurists and psychologists should collaborate to address this "addiction to prediction."
Emotional Attachment to Predictions
- Challenging someone's predictions can feel like a personal attack because it disrupts their sense of self-continuity.
- People identify strongly with their future selves, especially regarding aspects they can control.
Aligning Team and Organizational Objectives
- Align individual team objectives with overarching organizational goals.
- This creates a robust sense of direction and fosters motivation and productivity.