Riskgaming

Joel Burke, author and e-residency project leader in Estonia, discusses the remarkable transformation of his homeland from Soviet occupation to a digital powerhouse. He reveals how Estonia's innovative e-government promotes both privacy and efficiency, outperforming many nations. The conversation explores Skype's pivotal role, the balance between tech and privacy, and how Estonia's example can inspire U.S. policies. Burke also highlights the importance of national identity and the cultural shifts necessary for successful digital governance.

Ryder Kessler and Catherine Vaughn, co-heads of Abundance New York, dive into the pressing political landscape of New York City. They discuss the challenges of soaring rents and homelessness, advocating for innovative community organizing. The duo shares insights on motivating local politics, the importance of engaging marginalized voices, and the influence of community boards. They highlight how grassroots movements can reshape the narrative around prosperity and promote effective housing and transit reforms.

Samuel Arbesman, a scientist-in-residence at Lux Capital, discusses his new book on the enchanting world of coding and its impact on our future. He shares insights into how coding can be seen as modern sorcery, transforming the way we understand language and AI. The conversation touches on the creative journey of writing the book, emphasizing the balance between playful exploration and productivity in programming. Arbesman also highlights the vital connection between humanities and technology, advocating for a holistic approach to education in the age of AI.

Alicia Ellis, an Air Force veteran and director of the Master of Arts in Global Security at Arizona State University, dives deep into agricultural security. She discusses the rising threats of agricultural warfare, using the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a key example. Alicia shares insights on sustainable farming practices and the significance of government support. They explore the challenges of urbanization on agriculture and the need for innovations in water usage in arid regions. The conversation highlights the delicate balance between food security and geopolitical tensions.

Jared Dunnmon, founder of a stealth startup and former DIU member focusing on AI, dives into the heated debate between open-source and scaled AI models. He warns of the potential risks posed by China's advancements in AI, emphasizing the need for the U.S. to maintain dominance in this critical technology. The discussion also covers the complexities of trusting open versus closed models, the importance of secure AI development, and how benchmarking and collaboration can help navigate these competitive waters.

Bobby Franklin, president of the National Venture Capital Association, sheds light on the interplay between venture capital and U.S. policymaking. He discusses the significant legislative hurdles posed by the current administration, including tax reforms and regulatory challenges that impact startups. Franklin highlights the vital role of tech advocacy in navigating antitrust landscapes and the complexities of emerging AI regulations. His insights underscore the necessity of bridging the knowledge gap between Washington and Silicon Valley to foster innovation.

In this engaging conversation, Josh Wolfe, a founding managing partner at Lux Capital, reflects on the intricacies of optimism and self-confidence. He delves into the optimism paradox, explaining how heightened positivity doesn’t always lead to success. Wolfe also shares insights on the perils of overconfidence in venture capital and the ethical considerations involved in decision-making. Additionally, the intriguing 'hot hand' phenomenon is explored, revealing how perception can often mislead our understanding of success, both in finance and sports.

Kelvin Yu, a fellow at the Foundation for American Innovation and editor of the Techno-Industrial Policy Playbook, dives into America's tech-industrial landscape. He discusses the alarming trends of financialization since the 1970s and critiques its impact on U.S. competitiveness. Yu highlights the playbook's 27 proposals aiming to revamp manufacturing and technology against Chinese competition. He emphasizes the importance of collaboration between Silicon Valley innovators and policymakers to revitalize America's industrial prowess and enhance national security.

This is a big week for us, since we officially re-launched the newsletter on our gorgeous new web address Riskgaming.com, which we are now hosting on Substack. You’ll find all of our archives there, as well as much easier tools to manage your subscription to our Dispatches, Event Announcements, our edited Interviews and after almost a decade, Lux Recommends.We’ve had thousands of new people subscribe and follow us over the past two years, and so I figured this re-launch week was also an opportune time to recirculate one of my absolute favorite episodes of the podcast from three years ago in May 2022. Daniel Kahneman, alongside his long-time research partner Amos Tversky, pioneered the field now broadly known as decision science, exploring the economics, incentives, tradeoffs and psychologies of humans making judgments in moments of uncertainty. Tversky would pass away in 1996, and Kahneman would win the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics for much of the work they partnered together on.In the months after our recording, Kahneman made an extraordinary decision under uncertainty of his own. Concerned about his future risk for dementia, he decided to travel to Switzerland at the age of 90 to pass away through assisted suicide. It was an astonishing final decision by the master of decision-making, and he conducted his final act in secrecy before it was revealed in The Wall Street Journal in a column by Jason Zweig last month.I had the opportunity to host Kahneman alongside World Series of Poker champion Annie Duke, legendary investment strategist Michael Maubaussin of Morgan Stanley’s Counterpoint Global and our own founding managing partner Josh Wolfe for a lunch debate on the current research and trends underpinning risk, bias and decision-making. We merged our four part original series down to two parts. This week, we cover the ideas of pre-mortem as well as dissonance reduction and what circumstances lead people to changing their minds at all.

Europe faces an existential crisis. Long an innovation, technology and manufacturing hub, its greatest companies and wider industries have been hit hard by competition from American tech giants like Google and Chinese manufacturing powerhouses like BYD. Multiple prominent reports have circulated about how the European Union can rapidly respond before its economy struggles even more (this week, Germany announced that its economy will not grow in 2025, for the third year in a row).Today, Marko Papic makes the case for Europe — even against the tough competition. He’s a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research and a delightful guest with a panoramic perspective on the world’s current geopolitics, past and future economic history and the potential for technology to upend the global order.Joining host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner, Marko talks about why he’s bullish on Europe, counters the idea that America is more deregulated, discusses why Europe needs a 28th “digital state” and why national champions are critical for success, describes how Europe can balance between the U.S. and China and finally, offers why he is optimistic that disruptions globally will actually accelerate innovation rather than slow it down.Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko