Riskgaming

This is a big week for us, since we officially re-launched the newsletter on our gorgeous new web address Riskgaming.com, which we are now hosting on Substack. You’ll find all of our archives there, as well as much easier tools to manage your subscription to our Dispatches, Event Announcements, our edited Interviews and after almost a decade, Lux Recommends.We’ve had thousands of new people subscribe and follow us over the past two years, and so I figured this re-launch week was also an opportune time to recirculate one of my absolute favorite episodes of the podcast from three years ago in May 2022. Daniel Kahneman, alongside his long-time research partner Amos Tversky, pioneered the field now broadly known as decision science, exploring the economics, incentives, tradeoffs and psychologies of humans making judgments in moments of uncertainty. Tversky would pass away in 1996, and Kahneman would win the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics for much of the work they partnered together on.In the months after our recording, Kahneman made an extraordinary decision under uncertainty of his own. Concerned about his future risk for dementia, he decided to travel to Switzerland at the age of 90 to pass away through assisted suicide. It was an astonishing final decision by the master of decision-making, and he conducted his final act in secrecy before it was revealed in The Wall Street Journal in a column by Jason Zweig last month.I had the opportunity to host Kahneman alongside World Series of Poker champion Annie Duke, legendary investment strategist Michael Maubaussin of Morgan Stanley’s Counterpoint Global and our own founding managing partner Josh Wolfe for a lunch debate on the current research and trends underpinning risk, bias and decision-making. We merged our four part original series down to two parts. This week, we cover the ideas of pre-mortem as well as dissonance reduction and what circumstances lead people to changing their minds at all.

Europe faces an existential crisis. Long an innovation, technology and manufacturing hub, its greatest companies and wider industries have been hit hard by competition from American tech giants like Google and Chinese manufacturing powerhouses like BYD. Multiple prominent reports have circulated about how the European Union can rapidly respond before its economy struggles even more (this week, Germany announced that its economy will not grow in 2025, for the third year in a row).Today, Marko Papic makes the case for Europe — even against the tough competition. He’s a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research and a delightful guest with a panoramic perspective on the world’s current geopolitics, past and future economic history and the potential for technology to upend the global order.Joining host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner, Marko talks about why he’s bullish on Europe, counters the idea that America is more deregulated, discusses why Europe needs a 28th “digital state” and why national champions are critical for success, describes how Europe can balance between the U.S. and China and finally, offers why he is optimistic that disruptions globally will actually accelerate innovation rather than slow it down.Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko

Renée DiResta, an Associate Research Professor at Georgetown and a leader in internet research, discusses the current state of social media and its evolution. She highlights how platforms like X, Reddit, and Mastodon are trying to combat negative trends and the importance of private messaging for genuine engagement. The trio uses gardening as a metaphor for nurturing a healthier internet. They also delve into the future of online interactions, exploring how agentic AI can improve user experience while addressing privacy and authenticity challenges.

Josh Zoffer, a principal at Clocktower Ventures and former assistant to President Biden on economic policy, joins the discussion. He dives into the current market volatility driven by trade tariffs and globalization. The conversation highlights the need for innovation and strategic investments in American manufacturing. Zoffer emphasizes the importance of reshaping trade practices and tackling cultural barriers that hinder industrial growth. The trio also explores how government support can boost domestic production and foster a resilient workforce for future technologies.

Neil Thomas, a Fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute focusing on China's elite politics, and Kate Logan, the director of the China Climate Hub, delve into the impacts of the U.S.-China trade war. They discuss lessons from China's manufacturing rise and highlight the necessity for U.S. adaptation in a competitive environment. The duo emphasizes the importance of processing information overload and strategic partnerships in navigating the complexities of trade. Additionally, they explore the intersection of climate change and economic rivalry, urging a collaborative approach to global challenges.

Colin P. Clarke, Director of Research at The Soufan Group and former RAND terrorism analyst, dives into the duality of technology in modern chaos. He discusses how AI and drones can empower creativity but also arm extremists with disruptive potential. The conversation explores the shifting dynamics of terrorism, the implications of individual acts facilitated by accessible tech, and the media's inconsistent portrayal of violence. Clarke also hints at the legacy of Evgeny Prigozhin, examining the evolving landscape of private military companies in the wake of rising geopolitical tensions.

David Banks, a senior lecturer in wargaming at King's College London, sheds light on the intricate balance between realism and engagement in game design. He argues that understanding immersion is critical for effective learning. The discussion dives into the historical evolution of wargaming, contemporary research challenges, and scenarios like Taiwan's recognition that influence foreign policy. Banks emphasizes the need for robust evaluation frameworks and transparency in game outcomes while acknowledging subconscious biases that can skew decision-making.

Graham Norris is an organizational consultant with a focus on foresight psychology, while Ian Curtiss is an independent scenario designer for Lux Capital. They dive into our innate aversion to uncertainty and how it clouds our ability to predict the future. The pair discuss the psychological barriers that limit effective strategic planning and the importance of scenario thinking. They also highlight the need for alignment between personal ambitions and organizational goals, advocating for innovative gaming methods to navigate unpredictability in decision-making.

Gideon Lichfield, a writer for Substack’s Futurepolis and former Wired editor-in-chief, dives into the tense relationship between AI and democracy. He discusses how AI models, controlled by a select few, impact governance and the economy. Insightfully, he explores solutions like participatory budgeting and technology’s role in enhancing civic engagement. Lichfield shares experiences with risk gaming scenarios involving deepfakes, and emphasizes the importance of creating public-interest AI that prioritizes societal good over profit.

Maany Peyvan, former Senior Director of Communications at USAID under Biden, dives into the pressing issues surrounding U.S. foreign aid. He argues for a shift from self-interest to a charitable lens in American policy, highlighting the importance of empathy and innovation in humanitarian efforts. The conversation covers the transformation of aid work through AI, the critical role of foreign aid in global health, and the cultural significance of America's generosity amidst social isolation. Peyvan emphasizes that a renewed commitment to global assistance is essential for future success.