Navigating Uncertainty: Strategy and Decision-Making

Humans hate uncertainty, which means we are constantly looking for means to narrowly consider the future and its implications. Planning, predicting and debating what’s next may be the mainstay of any organization in the world, but organizations rarely want to confront upcoming existential challenges or radical shifts in strategy. That’s where foresight psychology comes in, with the goal of unearthing our avoidance of tough questions and finding ways to overcome them.

With Danny Crichton and Laurence Pevsner out on holiday, this is a special episode bringing together our independent Riskgaming designer Ian Curtiss and his friend Graham Norris. Norris has a doctorate in organizational psychology and for the past decade, has consulted with all kinds of businesses around the world on his theories of foresight psychology.

Ian and Graham discuss what makes us blind to the future, why psychologists have not been heavily represented in futurism, the difference between individual and organizational approaches to foresight, and why scenario thinking is an important approach to understanding challenges.

Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko