Mary Jo Vergara from Kiwibank, an expert on interest rates and housing dynamics, shares her insights on the recent drop in inflation from 7.3% to 3.3%. She delves into its implications for interest rates and the housing market, pointing to potential cuts from the Reserve Bank. The discussion also highlights economic trends such as declining consumer spending and the complexities of monetary policy. Looking ahead, Mary Jo offers an optimistic view for 2025, anticipating recovery in business investment and consumer confidence.
The significant drop in inflation rates from 7.3% to 3.3% indicates a hopeful economic recovery and potential interest rate cuts for borrowers.
Despite easing inflation overall, persistent domestic inflation in housing and services complicates the Reserve Bank's ability to stabilize the economy.
Deep dives
Inflation Trends and Economic Recovery
Recent data shows a significant drop in inflation rates, declining from a peak of 7.3% to a notable 3.3%, marking the lowest rate since June 2021. This reduction is largely driven by decreased imported inflation, which has helped ease overall economic concerns. As the economy begins to recover from a prolonged recession, expectations arise for the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates, possibly as early as November, which would bring much-needed relief to borrowers. The moderation of inflation is viewed positively, providing a hopeful outlook for the future economic landscape.
Domestic Inflation and Its Challenges
Despite overall inflation dropping, domestic inflation remains a concern, as prices for local goods and services continue to rise. Key contributors to this persistent inflation include costs associated with housing, insurance, and council rates, which are less sensitive to changes in interest rates. These domestic factors complicate the situation as they hinder the ability of the Reserve Bank to stabilize the economy within the desired inflation target of 1% to 3%. Focusing on domestic inflation trends is essential to ensure a complete recovery and restore balance in the economy.
Future Projections for Housing and Consumer Confidence
Experts predict a positive turn in the housing market, anticipating a return to rising prices due to increased demand driven by a surge in migration. As interest rates are likely to decrease, this will support a more balanced housing market, benefiting both buyers and renters. The sentiment around consumer confidence is expected to improve as well, with an anticipated uptick in business investment and consumer spending entering 2025. With these shifts, the economic growth could become more robust, fostering a more optimistic environment heading into the new year.
Softer-than-expected inflation figures this week suggest the inflation dragon - the one that savaged real wages and borrowing costs for the last three years - may have finally been shoved back in it's cave. Kiwibank's Mary Jo Vergara joins the podcast to discuss what that means going forward for interest rates in our housing-market-with-bits-tacked-on economy. Markets are now saying that the Reserve Bank could now cut the Official Cash Rate by the end of this year, but how many cuts can we hope for? Listen in to find out.