When the Facts Change

More than half of consumer spending is dominated one way or another by a collection of monopolies, duopolies and quadropolies that generate higher prices and profits than would be normal if there was true and tough competition, as a myriad of market studies and inquiries have found for supermarkets, fuel retailing, building materials, electricity, banking, insurance and real estate agencies. Twenty years of finger-wagging and report writing has failed in all of these sectors, except for telecommunications, where an aggressive breakup of a monopoly (Telecom) and regulation of number portability and interchange fees, along with the arrival of third competitor in 2degrees, sparked a flourishing of competition and ever-lower prices for ever-more data. The Reserve Bank called it the “2degrees Effect” in creating deflation for a significant part of the economy. Bernard Hickey talks to Monopoly Watch spokesman and one of the founders of 2degrees, Tex Edwards, about how to create the “2degrees Effect” for supermarkets, banking and electricity. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bernard Hickey talks to the co-founders of Christchurch-based AI start-up, Contented. Lucy Pink and Hannah Hardy-Jones tell their story from meeting over coffee and jam, to working with US news publishers to turn live-streamed council meetings into news articles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Donald Trump’s bigger-and-stupider-than-expected tariffs have upended the global trading system and are threatening to create a new financial crisis. Bernard Hickey talks with Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr about the latest day “when the facts changed”, and what might happen next. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

If New Zealand’s economy was a grass paddock, it would be in pretty rough shape. We’re coming out of a pretty bad drought (economic recession) and there’s widespread political disagreement about how to get our worn-out field of brown grass back to the lush green pasture it once was. Bernard Hickey speaks to Kiwibank economist Sabrina Delgado about what looks promising (green shoots) and what looks worrying (brown roots) in the meadow of our national economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

For 30 years, a little-known number in government circles has quietly stymied investment for future generations. Set by Treasury, the ‘discount rate’ was once set at 10%, and it meant future benefits and costs were heavily devalued, becoming worth almost nothing after six or seven years. In a nutshell, higher discount rates discourage long-term investment and incentivise short-term projects. Treasury has recently reduced the discount rate to 5%, but is that enough? Bernard Hickey talks with Arthur Grimes, senior fellow at Motu Research and professor at Victoria University, about a big shift to new discount rates that could make big future projects much more viable. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bernard Hickey chews the monetary policy fat with returning guest Reserve Bank chief economist Paul Conway. Was inflation targeting (a policy framework first introduced in Aotearoa 35 years ago) actually our greatest invention? Was quantitative easing a success? Is inflation different now? And should Reserve Banks and Governments work more in tandem, rather than against each other? Listen in to find out. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week we dive deep into the worlds of AI, defence technology businesses and the great technological arms race between China and the US. Bernard is joined by Sean Gourley, a New Zealander who founded US-based tech success story Primer, an AI intelligence company helping governments understand the mathematical patterns underlying modern warfare.Gourley shares his insights about New Zealand’s position in this great contest, along with the opportunities for New Zealand to grow high-value businesses (think Rocketlab) in the AI and tech space. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Adrian Orr resigned as Reserve Bank Governor this week after 7 years in the job, but three years early, effective immediately and without explanation. Bernard Hickey talks in an emergency edition of When The Facts Change with NZ Initiative executive director Oliver Hartwich, an Orr critic, about his legacy and how his replacement should change the bank, and with Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr about Orr’s operation of monetary policy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this insightful discussion, Jarrod Kerr, Chief Economist at Kiwibank, delves into New Zealand's precarious economic situation. He debates whether the Reserve Bank should accelerate monetary policy shifts amidst recession recovery. Kerr highlights the challenges of rising mortgage rates and local funding needs while addressing the impacts of cash rate cuts on housing and inflation. He also shares optimism about emerging consumer spending trends and the potential for a positive economic turnaround despite global uncertainties.

Rowan Simpson, a pivotal figure in New Zealand's tech scene with success in Trade Me and Xero, shares insights from his book, "How to Be Wrong: A Crash Course in Startup Success." He reflects on the dramatic acquisition of Trade Me and the hard-earned lessons from the highs and lows of startups. He discusses the significance of teamwork and adaptability, the unique challenges faced during COVID-19, and the impact of housing affordability on the entrepreneurial landscape. His journey reveals what it truly takes to navigate the volatile world of tech startups.