Scientist Matt Clancy discusses the risks and benefits of accelerating scientific progress, highlighting the potential consequences of genetic engineering advancements. The conversation explores the ethical implications of discount rates, the economic impact of science on income growth, and the costs associated with global biological catastrophic risks. Clancy advocates for strategic investments in science to maximize social impact and address extinction risks in a balanced manner.
Improving scientific institutions by 10% could lead to an extra $2.5 trillion in social value annually.
Examining the risks of accelerated scientific advancements, including misuse of biotechnology for catastrophic outcomes.
Quantifying the benefits of scientific progress with each dollar invested generating approximately $70 in returns.
Valuing the enduring impact of scientific progress over direct monetary benefits, emphasizing collective gains across generations.
Investing in science offers significant societal value, potentially exceeding trillions in social value per year.
Balancing the risks and benefits of accelerating scientific progress through strategic policies and assessing the potential for explosive growth.
Deep dives
The Impact of Investing in Scientific Progress
Investing in improving scientific institutions to make the scientific machine more effective could lead to significant value. Spending resources to enhance science by even 10% could result in an extra $2.5 trillion in social value annually, showcasing a high return on investment of 2,000 times.
Examining the Acceleration of Scientific Progress
The discussion delves into the possibilities and risks associated with accelerating scientific advancement. Areas explored include boosting health and incomes through scientific progress, potential scenarios of existential risks linked to accelerated science like biotechnology misuse, and the challenge of forecasting long-term impacts of hastened scientific breakthroughs.
Analyzing the Implications of Investing in Science
Exploration of whether investing in the acceleration of scientific progress is ultimately beneficial or detrimental to humanity. By evaluating the potential risks of accelerating science through meta-analysis, the conversation delves into the complexities of predicting the outcomes of hastening scientific progress.
Quantifying the Value of Scientific Progress
By quantifying the benefits of scientific progress in terms of increased health and income, the analysis estimates that every dollar invested in science generates approximately $70 in returns. This calculation accounts for factors like the impact on life expectancy, income growth, and health advancements attributed to scientific developments.
Benefits and Challenges of Philanthropy
Philanthropy aims to maximize social impact by considering the welfare each dollar buys. While giving a dollar to different individuals yields varying returns, the importance lies in quantifying the social value gained. The speaker highlights the contrast between direct monetary benefits and the enduring impact of scientific progress. By valuing the collective benefits of shared knowledge over time, the value per individual may seem reduced but is amplified across generations.
Evaluating Return on Investment
Investing in science presents a significant return on investment, offering immense societal value. Calculations show that even a marginal increase in scientific effectiveness can lead to substantial gains, potentially exceeding trillions of dollars in social value per year. By strategically allocating resources to enhance scientific capabilities, the multiplier effect on social benefits could be astronomical, showcasing a compelling rationale for targeted investments in scientific advancement.
Forecasting Biological Perils
Forecasts from both super forecasters and domain experts diverge significantly in predicting the likelihood of genetically engineered pandemics leading to catastrophic outcomes. The models outline contrasting estimates of the probability of human extinction or significant population loss due to engineered pathogens. These forecasts play a pivotal role in determining the potential risks associated with advancing scientific knowledge and technological capabilities.
Navigating Risks and Benefits of Accelerating Science
As discussions delve into the risks and benefits of accelerating scientific progress, considerations arise regarding the potential acceleration of a 'time of perils' intertwined with technological advancements. Implementing strategic policies to mitigate risks while maximizing scientific advancements emerges as a critical endeavor. The balance between enhancing scientific capabilities and averting potential catastrophic outcomes underscores the complex decision-making landscape surrounding innovation policies.
Bottlenecks to Explosive Growth and the Industrial Revolution
If explosive growth were to occur, the possibility of frictions slowing down the process should be considered. The history of economic growth has shown instances of rapid acceleration, such as during the Industrial Revolution when growth spiked but was not sustained at such high rates. The presence of persistent frictions in adoption processes could challenge the prospect of sustained explosive growth.
Signs of Adoption Across Sectors and Team Size in Innovation
Observing rapid adoption of innovations across diverse sectors, rather than isolated instances, could indicate a trend towards explosive growth. Additionally, a reduction in team size in innovation processes due to greater task automation using AI may signify advancing towards more rapid progress in adoption and innovation.
Reexamining Historical Growth Patterns for Insights
Revisiting historical precedents of rapid growth, like the Industrial Revolution, reveals that high-growth periods were not sustained long-term. While past instances of rapid growth provide reference points, the complex interplay of frictions and long-term sustainability must be carefully assessed in forecasting the potential for explosive growth.
Time Travel Thought Experiment in Technological Progress
The time travel bootstrap paradox offers a thought-provoking exploration into the origins of technological progress. By contemplating the ability to transmit future knowledge back to oneself, questions arise regarding the source and sustainability of advancements, raising considerations about the evolution of technology over time.
"Suppose we make these grants, we do some of those experiments I talk about. We discover, for example — I’m just making this up — but we give people superforecasting tests when they’re doing peer review, and we find that you can identify people who are super good at picking science. And then we have this much better targeted science, and we’re making progress at a 10% faster rate than we normally would have. Over time, that aggregates up, and maybe after 10 years, we’re a year ahead of where we would have been if we hadn’t done this kind of stuff.
"Now, suppose in 10 years we’re going to discover a cheap new genetic engineering technology that anyone can use in the world if they order the right parts off of Amazon. That could be great, but could also allow bad actors to genetically engineer pandemics and basically try to do terrible things with this technology. And if we’ve brought that forward, and that happens at year nine instead of year 10 because of some of these interventions we did, now we start to think that if that’s really bad, if these people using this technology causes huge problems for humanity, it begins to sort of wash out the benefits of getting the science a little bit faster." —Matt Clancy
In today’s episode, host Luisa Rodriguez speaks to Matt Clancy — who oversees Open Philanthropy’s Innovation Policy programme — about his recent work modelling the risks and benefits of the increasing speed of scientific progress.
Whether scientific progress is actually net positive for humanity.
Scenarios where accelerating science could lead to existential risks, such as advanced biotechnology being used by bad actors.
Why Matt thinks metascience research and targeted funding could improve the scientific process and better incentivise outcomes that are good for humanity.
Whether Matt trusts domain experts or superforecasters more when estimating how the future will turn out.
Why Matt is sceptical that AGI could really cause explosive economic growth.
And much more.
Chapters:
Is scientific progress net positive for humanity? (00:03:00)
The time of biological perils (00:17:50)
Modelling the benefits of science (00:25:48)
Income and health gains from scientific progress (00:32:49)
Discount rates (00:42:14)
How big are the returns to science? (00:51:08)
Forecasting global catastrophic biological risks from scientific progress (01:05:20)
What’s the value of scientific progress, given the risks? (01:15:09)
Factoring in extinction risk (01:21:56)
How science could reduce extinction risk (01:30:18)
Are we already too late to delay the time of perils? (01:42:38)
Domain experts vs superforecasters (01:46:03)
What Open Philanthropy’s Innovation Policy programme settled on (01:53:47)
Explosive economic growth (02:06:28)
Matt’s favourite thought experiment (02:34:57)
Producer and editor: Keiran Harris Audio engineering lead: Ben Cordell Technical editing: Simon Monsour, Milo McGuire, and Dominic Armstrong Additional content editing: Katy Moore and Luisa Rodriguez Transcriptions: Katy Moore
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