Democracy Paradox

Hal Brands Thinks China is a Declining Power... Here's Why that's a Problem

Jul 11, 2023

54:54

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Episode notes

Introduction

3min

The Thucydides Trap and the Future of International Relations

4min

China's Confidence in International Affairs

2min

The Peaking Power Trap and the 2014 War in Ukraine

3min

The Peaking Power Trap

4min

The Psychology of the Japanese Economic Powerhouse

5min

The Soviet Union and the Peaking Power Trap

6min

The History of Containment

4min

The Importance of Negotiation in the Cold War

3min

10.

The Importance of Picking Your Battles

5min

11.

The Differences Between China and the Soviet Union

3min

12.

The United States' Policy Toward China

3min

13.

The United States' Strategy for Containing China

3min

14.

The United States Is a Peaking Power

2min

15.

The Dangers of a Declining Power Dealing With Rising Powers

4min

The most dangerous states in the international system aren't necessarily revisionist powers that think that their trajectory points continually upward. It's those countries that have been growing, rising for a long time, and then fear that they are peaking and are about to decline. Those are the countries that are inclined to take the biggest risks to try to improve their position in the the here and now before things get worse for them in the future.

Hal Brands

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A full transcript is available at www.democracyparadox.com.

Hal Brands is the Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. He is the coauthor (with Michael Beckley) of Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China and the author of The Twilight Struggle: What the Cold War Teaches Us About Great-Power Rivalry Today.

Key Highlights

Introduction - 0:43
Peaking Power Theory - 3:12
The Original Cold War - 22:28
China as a Peaking Power - 31:14
American Policy Toward China - 41:56

Key Links

Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China by Hal Brands and Michael Beckley

The Twilight Struggle: What the Cold War Teaches Us about Great-Power Rivalry Today by Hal Brands

"China’s Threat to Global Democracy" in Journal of Democracy by Hal Brands and Michael Beckley

Democracy Paradox Podcast

Josh Chin on China’s Surveillance State

Elizabeth Economy in a Wide Ranging Conversation About China

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