Claudia Sahm: The Fed Itself Is The Biggest Risk To A Soft Landing

Feb 29, 2024

Exploring the risk of recession and the role of the Federal Reserve, labor market indicators, issues in commercial real estate, and the impact on financial markets. Discussion on the failed notion of 'technical recession,' potential triggers for GDP declines, and the importance of Fed's data-driven decisions. Insightful analysis on Bitcoin as a macro asset and the VanEck Bitcoin Trust ETF, along with labor market trends and the Fed's monetary policies.

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Introduction

00:00 • 4min

Navigating the Federal Reserve's Role in Economic Stability

04:15 • 17min

Analysis of Labor Market and Recessions Through the Psalm Rule

20:48 • 5min

Bitcoin as a Macro Asset and Labor Market Analysis

26:00 • 4min

Analyzing Labor Market Data Trends

29:39 • 6min

Navigating the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policies

35:55 • 27min

Federal Reserve's Aggressive Intervention and Stability Measures

01:02:51 • 3min

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more.

VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/

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(00:00) Introduction

(00:34) Why There Was No Recession In 2023

(03:00) It Remains My Base Case That We Avoid A Recession

(05:01) Market Often Pays Too Much Attention To Individual Data Points

(10:39) Overview Of Sahm Rule And The Labor Market: "Once The Fed Starts To See A Modest Amount Of Weakening In The Labor Market, It's Probably Too Late"

(12:36) Sahm: I'm More Worried That The Fed Breaks Something In Financial Markets, I'm Less Worried About The Labor Market

(15:04) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) and Its Issues Likely To Be "A Slow Burn"

(16:57) Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Was "Bread and Butter" For Fed

(20:54) The Sahm Rule Hasn't Been Triggered Yet - But How Close Are We?

(23:31) Notion Of 'Technical Recession' (2 Quarters of QoQ Real GDP Decline) Totally Failed

(25:59) VanEck Ad

(26:46) Labor Market

(29:45) JOLTS Can Be A "Problematic" Measure To Interpret

(36:12) Never Bet Against The American Consumer

(40:27) The Housing Market

(41:51) The Fed Should Never Be Buying Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Again

(49:35) Neutral Policy Rate

(55:51) If/When The Fed Cuts Interest Rates, It Will Be Orderly (Unless There Is A Crisis)

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.