Forward Guidance

Claudia Sahm: The Fed Itself Is The Biggest Risk To A Soft Landing

Feb 29, 2024

01:06:10

Snipd AI

Exploring the risk of recession and the role of the Federal Reserve, labor market indicators, issues in commercial real estate, and the impact on financial markets. Discussion on the failed notion of 'technical recession,' potential triggers for GDP declines, and the importance of Fed's data-driven decisions. Insightful analysis on Bitcoin as a macro asset and the VanEck Bitcoin Trust ETF, along with labor market trends and the Fed's monetary policies.

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Episode notes

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Quick takeaways

The Fed's cautious interest rate adjustments play a crucial role in avoiding a recession.

Monitoring labor market indicators is essential for assessing economic health and potential crisis responses.

Interest rates significantly influence consumer behavior, especially in big purchases and credit usage.

Deep dives

Insight on Recession Forecasting and Inflation Impact on Economy

There have been concerns regarding recession forecasts in the past two years due to high inflation rates. The Federal Reserve's historical approach to combating inflation by inducing recessions, notably in the 1970s, raised uncertainties. However, the speaker, Dr. Claudia Somme, argued that the recent inflation resulted from COVID disruptions and was not akin to the 1970s scenario. The insufficient inflation-unemployment trade-off indicated a robust labor market and argued against the necessity of a recession.

Introduction

4min

Navigating the Federal Reserve's Role in Economic Stability

17min

Analysis of Labor Market and Recessions Through the Psalm Rule

5min

Bitcoin as a Macro Asset and Labor Market Analysis

4min

Analyzing Labor Market Data Trends

6min

Navigating the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policies

27min

Federal Reserve's Aggressive Intervention and Stability Measures

3min

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more.

VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/

Follow Claudia Sahm on Twitter https://twitter.com/Claudia_Sahm

Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london

(00:00) Introduction

(00:34) Why There Was No Recession In 2023

(03:00) It Remains My Base Case That We Avoid A Recession

(05:01) Market Often Pays Too Much Attention To Individual Data Points

(10:39) Overview Of Sahm Rule And The Labor Market: "Once The Fed Starts To See A Modest Amount Of Weakening In The Labor Market, It's Probably Too Late"

(12:36) Sahm: I'm More Worried That The Fed Breaks Something In Financial Markets, I'm Less Worried About The Labor Market

(15:04) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) and Its Issues Likely To Be "A Slow Burn"

(16:57) Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Was "Bread and Butter" For Fed

(20:54) The Sahm Rule Hasn't Been Triggered Yet - But How Close Are We?

(23:31) Notion Of 'Technical Recession' (2 Quarters of QoQ Real GDP Decline) Totally Failed

(25:59) VanEck Ad

(26:46) Labor Market

(29:45) JOLTS Can Be A "Problematic" Measure To Interpret

(36:12) Never Bet Against The American Consumer

(40:27) The Housing Market

(41:51) The Fed Should Never Be Buying Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Again

(49:35) Neutral Policy Rate

(55:51) If/When The Fed Cuts Interest Rates, It Will Be Orderly (Unless There Is A Crisis)

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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Forward Guidance

Claudia Sahm: The Fed Itself Is The Biggest Risk To A Soft Landing

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Deep dives

Insight on Recession Forecasting and Inflation Impact on Economy

Fed's Navigation of Economic Landscape and Risks of Pushing for a Recession

Analysis of Labor Market Dynamics and Federal Reserve's Crisis Response

Impacts of the Labor Market and Interest Rates on Consumer Spending and Housing Market Strength

Federal Reserve's Monetary Policies and Evolving Views on Asset Purchases

Get the Snipd
podcast app

AI-powered
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highlights

Save any
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Forward Guidance

Claudia Sahm: The Fed Itself Is The Biggest Risk To A Soft Landing

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Deep dives

Insight on Recession Forecasting and Inflation Impact on Economy

Fed's Navigation of Economic Landscape and Risks of Pushing for a Recession

Analysis of Labor Market Dynamics and Federal Reserve's Crisis Response

Impacts of the Labor Market and Interest Rates on Consumer Spending and Housing Market Strength

Federal Reserve's Monetary Policies and Evolving Views on Asset Purchases

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Discoverhighlights

Save anymoment

Share& Export

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Discoverhighlights

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