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Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
Bonds, Baseball and Blankies
Oct 20, 2023
The podcast discusses the run-up in long-term bond yields and mortgage rates, as well as the outlook for the consumer. They explore the factors influencing the term premium and analyze the yield curve's correlation with recessions. They also discuss the record high median net worth of US households, consumer credit and utilization rates, resumption of student loan payments, and the correlation between owner's equivalent rent and the Phillies' World Series wins.
01:21:39
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Quick takeaways
- Rising delinquency rates and increased revolving debt pose risks to households' ability to make payments and could lead to a slowdown in spending growth.
- While there are concerns about delinquency rates and revolving debt, overall mortgage financing remains solid and lenders have been tightening their lending standards to mitigate risks.
Deep dives
Concerns about Rising Delinquency Rates and Increased Revolving Debt
There are concerns about rising delinquency rates and increased revolving debt, particularly in the credit card sector. Revolving debt is on the rise, and delinquency rates are already at or above 2019 levels. This is happening even as the unemployment rate remains relatively low, and further increases in delinquencies are anticipated. Higher interest rates are putting additional pressure on households, and it is feared that this could lead to higher defaults, tighter lending standards, and a general slowdown in spending growth.
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Discover
highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode