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#548 - Tim Harford - Why Is Thinking Clearly So Difficult?

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Nov 5, 2022

Guest

Tim Harford

Tim Harford, an economist and journalist known for his evidence-based storytelling, dives into the intricacies of clear thinking in a world overloaded with information. He discusses the surprising cognitive biases that skew our judgment, illustrated with historical blunders like Arthur Conan Doyle's fairy photos. The conversation highlights the fine line between belief and skepticism in public discourse, as well as the influence of social media on our perceptions of reality. Harford also explores how economic incentives shape human behavior, particularly regarding relationships and parenthood.

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ANECDOTE

Skin in the Game

Economists Keynes and Fisher both misjudged the 1929 Wall Street Crash.
Fisher's excessive "skin in the game" blinded him, while Keynes, less invested, fared better.

insights

INSIGHT

Inflation Misunderstood

Inflation isn't just rising prices; true inflation means wages rise with prices.
Current inflation is worse because wages lag, making us poorer.

insights

INSIGHT

Discriminating Doubt

Excessive skepticism is as harmful as blind belief.
Approach information with a discerning balance of doubt and belief.

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Navigating Social Behavior and Economic Insights

04:34 • 16min

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Navigating Belief and Skepticism

20:13 • 14min

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Toxic Cynicism and Cognitive Biases

34:17 • 27min

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Unveiling Clandestine Warfare: A Look into Historical Espionage

01:00:49 • 2min

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Economic Incentives and Human Choices

01:02:47 • 12min

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Cultural Trends Affecting Young Relationships and Sexual Activity

In 'Dollars and Sex', Marina Adshade applies economic theory to the realms of love and libido, examining how supply and demand, transaction costs, and other market forces shape our behaviors and decisions in matters of sex and relationships. The book offers a unique perspective on modern dating, marriage, and societal norms through an economic lens.

The Coming of the Fairies

Sir Arthur Conan Doyle

In 'The Coming of the Fairies', Arthur Conan Doyle examines the famous Cottingley Fairies photographs taken by Elsie Wright and Frances Griffiths. Doyle, a spiritualist, presents these images as evidence of psychic phenomena, discussing their authenticity and the reactions they provoked. The book includes observations from a clairvoyant and explores Theosophic views on fairies.

Churchill's Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare

Giles Milton

Churchill's Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare details the unconventional warfare tactics employed by Winston Churchill during World War II. It highlights his willingness to embrace unorthodox strategies, often considered ungentlemanly, to gain an advantage over the enemy. The book explores daring operations, ingenious inventions, and the unconventional characters involved in these missions. It showcases Churchill's innovative thinking and determination in the face of overwhelming odds. The narrative underscores the importance of adaptability and resourcefulness in wartime.

The Logic of Life

The Rational Economics of an Irrational World

Tim Harford

In 'The Logic of Life', Tim Harford uses economic reasoning to explain various aspects of everyday life, including sex, crime, gambling, addiction, marriage, racism, and politics. He illustrates how people respond to incentives and make rational decisions, even in situations that appear irrational. The book draws on insights from modern economics and game theory, presenting complex ideas in an engaging and entertaining manner. Harford also discusses the work of prominent economists and game theorists, making the book both informative and enjoyable for a broad audience.

Wild Problems

A Guide to the Decisions That Define Us

Russ Roberts

In 'Wild Problems,' Russ Roberts addresses the big, uncertain decisions in life—such as who to marry, whether to have children, where to move, and how to forge a life well-lived—that cannot be solved using data, science, or traditional rational approaches. He suggests focusing less on the path that promises the most happiness and more on figuring out who you actually want to be. Roberts draws on the experiences of great artists, writers, and scientists to lay out strategies for reducing fear and the loss of control when facing these 'wild problems. ' He argues that life should be experienced as a mystery rather than a problem to be solved, and he critiques the idea of relying solely on cost-benefit analysis and utilitarianism for making life's major decisions.

Don't Trust Your Gut

Seth Stephens-Davidowitz

In 'Don’t Trust Your Gut,' Seth Stephens-Davidowitz uses extensive datasets to uncover surprising and effective strategies for life’s biggest self-help puzzles. The book reveals how data from sources like dating profiles, tax records, and career trajectories contradict our instincts and offer practical, data-driven advice on topics such as finding a mate, raising children, and achieving career success. It emphasizes the importance of relying on hard facts and figures rather than gut instincts for making smarter decisions.

The detective

Roderick Thorp

Roderick Thorp's "The Detective" is a crime novel centered around Joe Leland, a seasoned detective investigating a murder case involving a severed penis. The story delves into the dark underbelly of crime, exploring themes of corruption, violence, and the psychological toll on law enforcement officers. Thorp's experience as a private investigator and crime reporter adds a layer of realism to the narrative. The novel's gritty realism and complex characters make it a compelling read for fans of crime fiction. The book's unique plot and characters have inspired various adaptations, including the film "Die Hard".

Alchemy

The Dark Art and Curious Science of Creating Magic in Brands, Business and Life

Rory Sutherland

In this book, Rory Sutherland explores the art and science of creating magic in brands, business, and life. He combines scientific research with entertaining stories and case studies from his career, including campaigns for AmEx and Microsoft. Sutherland emphasizes the importance of understanding human behavior, highlighting how decisions are often influenced by subtle external signals rather than objective qualities. The book challenges traditional marketing strategies by advocating for a more holistic and creative approach, using techniques such as storytelling, social proof, and framing to influence consumer decisions. It also explores how these principles can be applied to various social aims beyond just selling products.

Tim Harford is an economist, associate member of Nuffield College, Oxford and an honorary fellow of the Royal Statistical Society, a journalist and an author.

Humans need to be able to accurately judge the world around them. With more information than ever, this should be getting easier by the year and yet clear thinking seems to be ever more elusive. Why are we so prone to biases and what are some of the biggest rationality blunders from history?

Expect to learn why Sir Arthur Conan Doyle got obsessed with photos of fairies, what everyone misunderstands about inflation, the danger indiscriminate doubt and reflexive cynicism, the similarities between magic and misinformation, why smart people get hijacked by ideology and much more...

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Extra Stuff:

Check out Tim's website - https://timharford.com/

Buy Tim's book - https://amzn.to/3DNELvw

Get my free Reading List of 100 books to read before you die → https://chriswillx.com/books/

To support me on Patreon (thank you): https://www.patreon.com/modernwisdom

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