Making Sense with Sam Harris - Subscriber Content Making Sense of Existential Threat & Nuclear War
Apr 12, 2023
Join a thought-provoking discussion with Nick Bostrom, philosopher on existential risk; Fred Kaplan, historian of nuclear strategy; Mark Bowden, war journalist; Toby Ord, author on future threats; and Yuval Noah Harari, renowned historian. They explore the chilling reality of nuclear war, the flaws in deterrence, and the staggering risks humanity faces. From potential extinction scenarios to the power of global narratives in fostering cooperation, this conversation delves deep into our precarious existence and the urgent need for action.
02:01:07
The Urn Metaphor Of Dangerous Knowledge
- Nick Bostrom's urn metaphor frames technological discovery as pulling marbles of varying danger from an unknown set.
- The possibility of a 'black marble' technology implies we must treat invention pace and disclosure with caution.
The Man Who May Have Stopped Armageddon
- Sam recounts Stanislav Petrov's 1983 decision to disregard apparent incoming missiles and avoid escalation.
- Petrov's intuition likely prevented a massive retaliatory launch and possible global nuclear war.
Cuban Missile Crisis Was Avoided By A Secret Deal
- Fred Kaplan reveals Khrushchev secretly offered to remove missiles from Cuba if the U.S. removed missiles from Turkey.
- Public myths of 'brinkmanship' obscured back-channel diplomacy that actually avoided nuclear war.
Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode
Get the app 1 chevron_right 2 chevron_right 3 chevron_right 4 chevron_right 5 chevron_right 6 chevron_right 7 chevron_right
Intro
00:00 • 3min
The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence
02:47 • 7min
Nuclear Dilemmas: The Unseen Threat
10:05 • 41min
Nuclear Dilemmas: Deterrence and Global Security
51:00 • 45min
Navigating Humanity's Precipice
01:35:57 • 11min
The Incompatibility of Nationalism with Global Challenges
01:46:31 • 3min
Balancing Cooperation and Existential Threats
01:49:36 • 11min
#241
• Mentioned in 70 episodes
The better angels of our nature
Why Violence Has Declined
Steven Pinker
In this book, Steven Pinker presents a detailed argument that violence has significantly decreased over the course of human history.
He uses extensive data and statistical analysis to demonstrate this decline in various domains, including military conflict, homicide, genocide, torture, and the treatment of children, homosexuals, animals, and racial and ethnic minorities.
Pinker identifies four key human motivations – empathy, self-control, the moral sense, and reason – as the 'better angels' that have oriented humans away from violence and towards cooperation and altruism.
He also discusses historical forces such as the rise of the state (which he terms 'Leviathan'), the spread of commerce, the growth of feminist values, and the expansion of cosmopolitanism, which have contributed to this decline in violence.
#560
• Mentioned in 38 episodes
21 Lessons for the 21st Century
Yuval Noah Harari
In '21 Lessons for the 21st Century', Yuval Noah Harari tackles the most pressing questions of our time.
The book explores issues such as the crisis of liberal democracy, the rise of nationalism, the impact of technological advancements, the threat of terrorism, and the challenges posed by climate change and nuclear war.
Harari presents these complex contemporary challenges clearly and accessibly, inviting readers to consider values, meaning, and personal engagement in a world filled with noise and uncertainty.
He emphasizes the need for critical thinking, communication, collaboration, and creativity in navigating the future and suggests that individuals must identify strongly with a global community to confront global problems effectively.
#331
• Mentioned in 56 episodes
Enlightenment Now
Steven Pinker
In 'Enlightenment Now', Steven Pinker presents a comprehensive argument that the values of the Enlightenment—reason, science, and humanism—have been instrumental in the progress of human society.
He challenges the prevailing pessimism in modern discourse by presenting empirical evidence that life, health, prosperity, safety, peace, knowledge, and happiness are on the rise globally.
Pinker uses data and graphs to illustrate improvements in various aspects of human life, such as increased life expectancy, reduced child and maternal mortality, and advancements in medicine and technology.
He also addresses the psychological biases that lead people to underestimate these improvements and emphasizes the importance of continuing to uphold Enlightenment ideals to ensure further progress.
#1292
• Mentioned in 21 episodes
Reasons and Persons
Derek Parfit
Derek Parfit's "Reasons and Persons" is a landmark work in contemporary philosophy, profoundly impacting discussions on personal identity, ethics, and rationality.
Parfit challenges traditional notions of the self, arguing that our sense of personal identity is less coherent than we assume.
He explores the implications of this for our moral obligations, particularly concerning future generations.
The book delves into the complexities of decision-making under uncertainty, examining how we should weigh our present interests against the potential consequences of our actions for the future.
Parfit's rigorous analysis and thought-provoking arguments have had a lasting influence on various fields, including ethics, political philosophy, and decision theory.
His work continues to stimulate debate and inspire new research.
#117
• Mentioned in 116 episodes
Homo Deus
A Brief History of Tomorrow
Yuval Noah Harari
In 'Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow', Yuval Noah Harari examines the future of humanity, predicting that in the 21st century, humans will strive for happiness, immortality, and god-like powers.
The book discusses how technological developments, such as artificial intelligence and genetic engineering, will shape human society.
Harari speculates on the possibilities of overcoming death, creating artificial life, and the potential risks and philosophical implications of these advancements.
He also explores the impact of humanism, individualism, and transhumanism on our future and questions the continued dominance of humans in a world increasingly driven by data and algorithms.
#14
• Mentioned in 325 episodes
Sapiens
A Brief History of Humankind
Yuval Noah Harari
This book surveys the history of humankind from the Stone Age to the 21st century, focusing on Homo sapiens.
It divides human history into four major parts: the Cognitive Revolution, the Agricultural Revolution, the Unification of Humankind, and the Scientific Revolution.
Harari argues that Homo sapiens dominate the world due to their unique ability to cooperate in large numbers through beliefs in imagined realities such as gods, nations, money, and human rights.
The book also examines the impact of human activities on the global ecosystem and speculates on the future of humanity, including the potential for genetic engineering and non-organic life.
#271
• Mentioned in 66 episodes
The Precipice
Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity
Toby Ord
In this book, Toby Ord argues that humanity is in a uniquely dangerous period, which he terms 'the Precipice,' beginning with the first atomic bomb test in 1945.
Ord examines various existential risks, including natural and anthropogenic threats, and estimates that there is a one in six chance of humanity suffering an existential catastrophe within the next 100 years.
He advocates for a major reorientation in how we see the world and our role in it, emphasizing the need for collective action to minimize these risks and ensure a safe future for humanity.
The book integrates insights from multiple disciplines, including physics, biology, earth science, computer science, history, anthropology, statistics, international relations, and moral philosophy.
#6954
• Mentioned in 5 episodes
The bomb
presidents, generals, and the secret history of nuclear wa
Fred Kaplan
This book provides a comprehensive history of how America's presidents and generals have thought about, threatened, and just barely avoided nuclear war since the dawn of the atomic age.
Fred Kaplan takes readers into the White House Situation Room, the Joint Chiefs of Staff’s 'Tank' in the Pentagon, and the vast chambers of Strategic Command to reveal untold stories based on his deep research and reporting.
The book discusses theories and nightmare scenarios involving mass destruction, highlighting the enduring reality of nuclear war and its dire consequences.
#21646
• Mentioned in 2 episodes
The fate of the earth
Jonathan Schell
Jonathan Schell's "The Fate of the Earth" is a profound exploration of the unthinkable consequences of nuclear war.
Schell masterfully paints a picture of the devastation, not just in terms of immediate destruction, but also the long-term ecological and societal collapse that would follow.
He challenges readers to confront the moral implications of possessing such destructive power and urges a re-evaluation of our priorities in the face of this existential threat.
The book's impact lies in its ability to evoke a visceral understanding of the stakes involved, prompting reflection on our collective responsibility to prevent nuclear catastrophe.
Its enduring relevance stems from the continued existence of nuclear weapons and the persistent risk of their use.
#44071
The Button
None
William J. Perry
In this episode, we examine the topic of existential threat, focusing in particular on the subject of nuclear war.
Sam opens the discussion by emphasizing the gravity of our ability to destroy life as we know it at any moment, and how shocking it is that nearly all of us perpetually ignore this fact. Philosopher Nick Bostrom expands on this idea by explaining how developing technologies like DNA synthesis could make humanity more vulnerable to malicious actors.
Sam and historian Fred Kaplan then guide us through a hypothetical timeline of events following a nuclear first strike, highlighting the flaws in the concept of nuclear deterrence. Former Defense Secretary William J. Perry echoes these concerns, painting a grim picture of his "nuclear nightmare" scenario: a nuclear terrorist attack.
Zooming out, Toby Ord outlines each potential extinction-level threat, and why he believes that, between all of them, we face a one in six chance of witnessing the downfall of our species. Our episode ends on a cautiously optimistic note, however, as Yuval Noah Harari shares his thoughts on "global myth-making" and its potential role in helping us navigate through these perilous times.
About the Series
Filmmaker Jay Shapiro has produced The Essential Sam Harris, a new series of audio documentaries exploring the major topics that Sam has focused on over the course of his career.
Each episode weaves together original analysis, critical perspective, and novel thought experiments with some of the most compelling exchanges from the Making Sense archive. Whether you are new to a particular topic, or think you have your mind made up about it, we think you’ll find this series fascinating.