Marketing Operators Inside Our Forecasting, Pacing, and Holiday Shipping Strategy for BFCM Success
Nov 4, 2025
Dive into the strategies behind Black Friday and Cyber Monday success! The team discusses forecasting revenue and pacing for Q4, examining the impact of new product launches. Learn about their daily revenue tracking using a pacing sheet and insights from incrementality tests for YouTube, Meta, and CTV. They also explore effective holiday shipping cutoffs and how distribution messaging evolves in December. Finally, discover strategies for maximizing the 'Q5' opportunity post-holidays.
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Use A 30‑Day Pacing Sheet Daily
- Build a 30-day pacing sheet that maps last year's daily accruals to this year's goal and update daily.
- Compare accrual % of sales and spend to spot pacing deltas and adjust spend cadence.
Adjust Last Year’s Curve For New Tactics
- Start your pacing from last year's daily percent distribution, then 'fudge' days where you intentionally change timing.
- Prioritize day-over-day percent changes as the best short-term predictor into BFCM week.
Forecast By Cohort To Capture Repeat Revenue
- Build cohort-based daily forecasts that split new vs returning revenue and auto-update when acquisition changes.
- Use seasonality multipliers and separate AOV inputs for new and repeat cohorts.