How We Re-Forecast Q4 Revenue

Cody explains monthly reforecasting using recent pacing, cohort inputs, AOV, AMER and seasonality adjustments for November and December.

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Episode notes

This week, we’re taking an even deeper dive into all things BFCM. How the team is approaching forecasting, pacing, and spend strategy heading into the most important stretch of Q4. We break down how each of us is projecting November and December revenue this year, how new product launches and category expansion factor into those forecasts, and what data we’re using to stay accurate in real time.

Connor M walks us through his Holiday Sale Revenue pacing sheet, showing exactly how he tracks daily revenue and ad spend targets, while the group compares different approaches to pacing across brands and channels.

We also dig into how we’re scaling YouTube, Meta, and CTV spend, what the latest incrementality tests are showing, and how to use ROAS lift to decide when to push hardest.

Finally, we wrap up with a look at holiday shipping cutoffs, with how distribution and messaging strategies shift in December, the “Q5” opportunity that follows, and how to make the most of those final weeks of the year when every day still counts.

Holiday Sale Revenue Pacing Sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13W_a721DjhlgtLqUj7iC7w32NtitbnNnA9kYifws1NQ/edit?gid=973800920#gid=973800920

If you have a question for the MOperators Hotline, click the link to be in with a chance of it being discussed on the show: https://forms.gle/1W7nKoNK5Zakm1Xv6

Chapters:

00:00:00 - Introduction

00:09:04 - Black Friday Prep & Timelines

00:20:17 - How to Re-Forecast Q4 Revenue

00:35:41 - BFCM Pacing Sheet Walkthrough

00:50:57 - Visualizing Pacing Data & The 12% Stat

01:02:40 - Holiday Shipping Cutoff Strategies

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