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#634: Niall Ferguson, Historian — The Coming Cold War II, Visible and Invisible Geopolitics, Why Even Atheists Should Study Religion, Masters of Paradox, Fatherhood, Fear, and More

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Nov 15, 2022

Guest

Niall Ferguson

Niall Ferguson, historian and author of acclaimed works like 'The Pity of War' and 'The Square and the Tower', delves into the looming threat of a new Cold War, examining the geopolitical dynamics between the U.S., China, and Russia. He shares personal anecdotes about academia, fatherhood, and the impact of belief systems. Ferguson also discusses the significance of historical contingency, using Zelensky's leadership as a poignant example, while emphasizing the importance of accessible history for all. His reflections on parenting provide a heartfelt look at balancing career and family.

01:57:16

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insights

INSIGHT

Value of Unpublished Sources

Unpublished historical documents offer a less filtered view of the past than published, edited works.
They provide a closer approximation of reality, especially when exploring individuals' private thoughts and motivations.

insights

INSIGHT

Cold War II

The current US-China rivalry is Cold War II, with an ideological divide, technological race, and geopolitical tensions.
Like the first Cold War, it risks escalating into a hot war, especially with Taiwan as a potential flashpoint.

insights

INSIGHT

China's Global Strategy

China's global strategy involves infrastructure investment and technology exports, posing a unique challenge to the US.
The US strategy of technological containment may backfire by incentivizing China to take Taiwan.

Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode

Navigating History and Academia

03:44 • 11min

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Reflections on the High Table

14:53 • 20min

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The Resurgence of Tweed and Historical Contingencies

34:26 • 5min

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Contingency and Historical Impact

39:35 • 14min

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Navigating Cold War II: Geopolitical Dynamics

54:05 • 26min

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Engaging History: From Observers to Change Agents

01:20:01 • 9min

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Navigating Fatherhood and Identity

01:28:48 • 22min

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Reflecting on Insights and Personal Health Considerations

01:51:01 • 2min

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Curated Weekly Recommendations and Essential Services

01:52:36 • 5min

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#4388

• Mentioned in 10 episodes

The Pity of War

Niall Ferguson

#3212

• Mentioned in 14 episodes

Infidel

My Life

Ayaan Hirsi Ali

In 'Infidel,' Ayaan Hirsi Ali recounts her journey from a traditional Somali upbringing to becoming a vocal critic of Islam and a champion of women's rights. The book covers her experiences with female genital mutilation, her escape from an arranged marriage, and her subsequent rise in Dutch politics. It also delves into her critiques of Islamic practices and her advocacy for secularism and human rights.

#3115

• Mentioned in 14 episodes

The House of Rothschild

Volume 1: Money's Prophets, 1798-1848

Niall Ferguson

In this meticulously researched volume, Niall Ferguson explores the early history of the Rothschild family, detailing their ascent from the Frankfurt ghetto to become one of the most influential financial dynasties in Europe. The book delves into their strategic use of financial instruments and their extensive political networks, which enabled them to dominate international finance during the 19th century.

#173

• Mentioned in 118 episodes

Chip War

The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology

Chris Miller

In 'Chip War', Chris Miller details how the semiconductor industry has become essential for modern life, influencing military, economic, and geopolitical power. The book explores the historical development of microchips, from their origins in Silicon Valley to their current role in global politics, particularly in the competition between the United States and China. Miller explains how the U.S. dominance in chip design and manufacturing contributed to its victory in the Cold War and how China's efforts to catch up are shaping the current geopolitical landscape.

#2058

• Mentioned in 20 episodes

Empire

How Great Britain Made the Modern World

Sir Niall Ferguson

In this book, Niall Ferguson argues that the British Empire played a crucial role in shaping the modern world. He details how the empire's expansion from the seventeenth to the mid-twentieth century led to the global spread of capitalism, telecommunications, the English language, and institutions of representative government. Ferguson also examines the complexities and controversies of the empire, including its ruthless defense and the imposition of Western norms on other cultures. The book is praised for its engaging narrative and rigorous historical analysis, offering a balanced view of the empire's achievements and pitfalls.

#3235

• Mentioned in 14 episodes

Destined for War

Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?

Graham Allison

In 'Destined for War,' Graham Allison explores the concept of the 'Thucydides Trap,' where the rise of a new power threatens the dominance of an existing one, often leading to war. Allison draws on 16 historical cases where a rising power challenged a dominant state, with 12 of these cases resulting in war. He applies this historical lens to the current relationship between the United States and China, highlighting the potential for conflict but also outlining '12 clues to peace' derived from historical analysis to prevent such an outcome. The book is divided into sections that cover the rise of China, historical lessons from the Peloponnesian War and other conflicts, and strategies for avoiding war based on these historical insights.

#10054

• Mentioned in 5 episodes

The Masters

C. P. Snow

The novel follows the contest for the Mastership of a Cambridge college as the old Master dies of cancer. The two main candidates are Paul Jago and Crawford, each with their own strengths and weaknesses. The narrative, told through the eyes of Lewis Eliot, delves into the politics and personal issues of the college's faculty, providing a meticulous study of power dynamics in an academic setting during post-war Britain.

#2210

• Mentioned in 19 episodes

Civilization

The West and the Rest

Sir Niall Ferguson

In this book, Niall Ferguson argues that Western civilization's rise to global dominance was driven by six powerful new concepts, or 'killer applications,' that emerged in the fifteenth century. These include competition, science, the rule of law, modern medicine, consumerism, and the work ethic. Ferguson explains how these factors allowed the West to surge past its Eastern rivals and dominate the world for the past five centuries. However, he also discusses how the Rest have now adopted these 'killer apps,' while the West has lost faith in itself. The book chronicles the rise and fall of empires and the clashes and fusions of civilizations, offering a bold and insightful recasting of world history.

#3711

• Mentioned in 12 episodes

Square and the Tower

Networks and Power, from the Freemasons to Facebook

Niall Ferguson

In this book, Niall Ferguson argues that networks have always been a crucial part of human society, from ancient cults to modern social media platforms like Facebook. He uses social network analysis to demonstrate how these networks often hold more real power than the hierarchical institutions they challenge. The book explores historical examples, including the Reformation and the rise of revolutionary ideas, to illustrate the ongoing struggle between 'the Square' (networks) and 'the Tower' (hierarchies). Ferguson also applies network theory concepts to understand both the past and the present, offering insights into how networks can transform our understanding of history and current affairs.

#3945

• Mentioned in 11 episodes

Kissinger

A Biography

Walter Isaacson

This biography by Walter Isaacson provides a detailed and balanced account of Henry Kissinger's life, from his childhood as a persecuted Jew in Nazi Germany to his rise as a prominent figure in American foreign policy. The book examines Kissinger's complex personality, his relationships with key figures like Richard Nixon, and his significant contributions to and controversies within American diplomacy. Isaacson draws on extensive interviews with Kissinger and over 150 other sources, including private papers and classified memos, to offer a nuanced view of Kissinger's realist approach to foreign policy and its moral implications.

#1720

• Mentioned in 23 episodes

Doom

The Politics of Catastrophe

Niall Ferguson

In 'Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe', Niall Ferguson delves into the global history of disasters, analyzing why humanity consistently fails to prepare for catastrophes. The book covers a wide range of disasters, from pandemics and earthquakes to financial crises and wars, and argues that many disasters have man-made components. Ferguson critiques the responses of developed countries to the COVID-19 pandemic and highlights the role of bureaucratic failures and complex systems in exacerbating disasters. The book draws on various fields such as economics, epidemiology, and network science to offer a general theory of disasters and suggests ways to improve future responses to crises.

#2454

• Mentioned in 17 episodes

The great illusion

Angell, Norman Sir

In 'The Great Illusion,' Norman Angell argues that the economic costs of war are so high that no nation can hope to gain from it. He contends that modern economic systems, based on trade and contract law, make war futile because conquest does not lead to economic benefits. The book refutes the common belief that military power results in greater wealth and instead posits that advanced economies can only generate value in the absence of military conflicts. Angell also discusses the psychological and moral aspects of war, emphasizing that the nature of modern capitalism makes nationalist sentiment among capitalists irrelevant. Despite its publication just before World War I, which seemed to contradict his thesis, the book remains a significant work in the field of international relations and peace studies.

#8843

• Mentioned in 5 episodes

Kissinger: 1923-1968

The Idealist

Niall Ferguson

This book, the first of a two-volume biography, challenges the common perception of Henry Kissinger as a cold realist by portraying him as an idealist influenced by philosophical traditions and moral imperatives. It delves into Kissinger's early life, education, and intellectual development, drawing on extensive archival material to paint a nuanced picture of his formative years.

#92

• Mentioned in 171 episodes

Dominion

The Power of Man, the Suffering of Animals, and the Call to Mercy

Matthew Scully

In 'Dominion,' Matthew Scully presents a comprehensive and eloquent case against the mistreatment of animals. The book delves into various aspects of animal suffering, including factory farming, hunting, whaling, and laboratory experiments. Scully challenges the notion that humans have unlimited dominion over animals, as suggested by biblical interpretations, and argues for a moral and compassionate approach to animal treatment. He draws on both religious and scientific perspectives to make his case, emphasizing the importance of empathy and the recognition of animal consciousness and suffering. The book is a call to action for reform and a plea for human benevolence and mercy towards animals.

#1720

• Mentioned in 23 episodes

Doom

The Politics of Catastrophe

Niall Ferguson

#109

• Mentioned in 157 episodes

The 4-Hour Body

An Uncommon Guide to Rapid Fat-Loss, Incredible Sex, and Becoming Superhuman

Tim Ferriss

In 'The 4-Hour Body,' Tim Ferriss shares the results of over a decade of self-experimentation and research, involving hundreds of elite athletes, dozens of MDs, and thousands of hours of personal testing. The book covers more than 50 topics, including how to lose weight quickly, gain muscle without steroids, sleep less and perform better, and improve sexual health. Ferriss emphasizes the importance of finding the smallest changes that produce the biggest results, making it accessible for readers to achieve significant improvements in their physical health and performance.

#18627

• Mentioned in 3 episodes

The struggle for mastery in Europe

A. J. P. Taylor

A. J. P. Taylor's "The Struggle for Mastery in Europe" offers a compelling narrative of European power politics from 1848 to 1918. Taylor masterfully weaves together diplomatic history, social and economic factors, and the personalities of key leaders to illuminate the complex interplay of forces that shaped the continent's destiny. His analysis challenges traditional interpretations, offering fresh perspectives on the causes of World War I. The book remains a valuable resource for understanding the dynamics of great power competition and the long-term consequences of strategic choices. It serves as a reminder of the enduring relevance of historical context in analyzing contemporary international relations.

#3115

• Mentioned in 14 episodes

The House of Rothschild

Volume 1: Money's Prophets, 1798-1848

Niall Ferguson

#7591

• Mentioned in 6 episodes

The trial of Henry Kissinger

Christopher Hitchens

#822

• Mentioned in 40 episodes

Essays

Michel de Montaigne

Montaigne's *Essays* are a seminal work that introduced the essay as a literary form. The book is a personal and introspective exploration of various subjects, including the human condition, skepticism, and the importance of concrete experience over abstract learning. Montaigne's skepticism is reflected in the title *Essais*, meaning 'Attempts' or 'Tests', indicating a project of trial and error and tentative exploration. The essays cover topics such as the education of children, the role of the body, illness, aging, and death. Montaigne's writing style is characterized by multiple digressions, anecdotes from ancient and contemporary sources, and quotations that reinforce his critical analysis of reality.

#70863

Ike Freiman's work on climate aspects of Cold War II

Ike Freiman

No information available.

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Niall Ferguson (@nfergus), MA, DPhil, FRSE, is the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and a senior faculty fellow of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard. He is the author of 16 books, including The Pity of War, The House of Rothschild, Empire, Civilization, and Kissinger, 1923–1968: The Idealist, which won the Council on Foreign Relations Arthur Ross Prize.

He is an award-winning filmmaker, too, having won an International Emmy for his PBS series The Ascent of Money. His 2018 book, The Square and the Tower, was a New York Times bestseller and also adapted for television by PBS as Niall Ferguson’s Networld. In 2020 he joined Bloomberg Opinion as a columnist.

In addition, he is the founder and managing director of Greenmantle LLC, a New York-based advisory firm; a co-founder of Ualá, a Latin American financial technology company; and a trustee of the New York Historical Society, the London-based Centre for Policy Studies, and the newly founded University of Austin.

His latest book, Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe, was published last year by Penguin and was shortlisted for the Lionel Gelber Prize.

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[05:45] How Niall's multi-faceted career has gone according to plan.

[08:00] The license to be outrageous in academia ain't what it used to be.

[14:53] High table, dregs of Château Lafite, and hyperbolic references.

[20:26] A.J.P. Taylor and the philosophy of history.

[25:00] How does a historian find an "ear" for historical resonance?

[29:48] What Niall would ask A.J.P. if they were Château Lafite drinking buddies.

[34:30] An appetite for tweed.

[36:40] Historical contingency.

[43:40] A.J.P. Taylor reading for beginners and counterfactual history.

[46:41] Dan Carlin, Elon Musk, and Gavrilo Princip.

[48:39] What Niall gets out of digging deep into historical correspondence.

[54:04] Cold War II — what can we do?

[1:10:44] Keeping Cold War II from heating up into World War III.

[1:16:37] Economic interdependence does not preclude conflict.

[1:20:02] Ways Niall is using his grasp of history to change the world for the better.

[1:26:11] How Niall's toolkit for enacting change has evolved over the years.

[1:28:55] Thoughts on fatherhood.

[1:36:15] Why someone raised as an atheist takes his kids to church.

[1:42:42] Has marriage to ex-Muslim Ayaan Hirsi Ali changed Niall's view of Western philosophy?

[1:46:22] Life under fatwa.

[1:51:00] Parting thoughts.

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