#225 Austin Branch, Dave Pitts, and Joe Miller on Cognitive Warfare and the Gray Zone

May 27, 2025

Guest

Austin Branch

Guest

Dave Pitts

Guest

Joe Miller

Austin Branch, founder of Crescent Bridge, Dave Pitts, a former CIA executive, and Joe Miller, Deputy Commander for Support at the US Army Special Operations Command, dive into the intricacies of cognitive warfare and the gray zone. They discuss how Russia and China employ manipulative tactics that impact U.S. policy and national security. The conversation highlights the critical role of collaboration between public and private sectors in countering these threats. They also explore the importance of storytelling and strategic narratives in shaping perceptions in modern conflicts.

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INSIGHT

Evolution of Great Power Competition

Great power competition has evolved from direct conflict to maneuvering in non-kinetic domains like cognitive warfare.
Adversaries exploit vulnerabilities in cognition and societal cohesion for advantage without open warfare.

INSIGHT

Defining Cognitive Warfare

Cognitive warfare is a comprehensive assault on human cognition beyond spreading false information.
It targets how people think, decide, and their resolve to influence strategic outcomes.

ADVICE

Align Against Common Threats

Stop focusing on turf wars over resource control in information operations.
Orient efforts collectively toward understanding and countering the adversary's cognitive and information threats.

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The Black Swan

The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

David Chandler

Nassim Taleb

The Black Swan is a landmark book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb that investigates the phenomenon of highly improbable events with massive impacts. These events, termed Black Swans, are unpredictable, have a significant impact, and are rationalized after the fact to appear less random. Taleb argues that humans are hardwired to focus on specifics rather than generalities, leading to a failure to consider what we don’t know. The book delves into cognitive biases, the limitations of mathematical models, and the importance of robustness and antifragility in navigating a world filled with uncertainty. The second edition includes a new essay, 'On Robustness and Fragility,' offering tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.

Unrestricted Warfare

Two Chinese Colonels

Screenplay

Syd Field

Syd Field's 'Screenplay: The Foundations of Screenwriting' is a seminal work that outlines the three-act structure, emphasizing setup, confrontation, and resolution. It provides insights into crafting memorable characters, writing authentic dialogue, and overcoming writer's block. The book has been a cornerstone for aspiring and professional screenwriters alike since its publication in 1979.

Antifragile

Things That Gain from Disorder

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Albino Santos Mosquera

Genís Sánchez Barberán

In 'Antifragile', Nassim Nicholas Taleb delves into the concept of antifragility, arguing that some systems not only withstand stress and disorder but actually benefit from them. The book builds on ideas from his previous works, such as 'Fooled by Randomness' and 'The Black Swan', and is part of his five-volume philosophical treatise on uncertainty, 'Incerto'. Taleb provides examples from various fields, including science, economics, and history, to illustrate how antifragility can be achieved and how it contrasts with fragility and robustness. He also discusses strategies like the barbell strategy and optionality, and critiques modern society's attempts to eliminate volatility, which he believes are harmful. The book is praised for its revolutionary ideas and multidisciplinary approach, though it has also received criticism for its style and some of the author's views on mental health and other topics.

Thinking, Fast and Slow

Daniel Kahneman

In this book, Daniel Kahneman takes readers on a tour of the mind, explaining how the two systems of thought shape our judgments and decisions. System 1 is fast, automatic, and emotional, while System 2 is slower, effortful, and logical. Kahneman discusses the impact of cognitive biases, the difficulties of predicting future happiness, and the effects of overconfidence on corporate strategies. He offers practical insights into how to guard against mental glitches and how to benefit from slow thinking in both personal and business life. The book also explores the distinction between the 'experiencing self' and the 'remembering self' and their roles in our perception of happiness.

The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association.

During this episode, Austin Branch, Dave Pitts, and Joe Miller discuss cognitive warfare, the gray zone, and intensifying great power competition. The ultimate goal is to compete by gaining and maintaining information advantage without kinetic fighting.

Recording Date: 28 Apr 2025

Research Question: Has Russian cognitive warfare, including the use of reflexive control, red lines and nuclear threats, influenced US policy decisions regarding weapon deliveries and restrictions to Ukraine? Similarly, has Chinese cognitive warfare impacted US policy and strategic outcomes concerning Taiwan and the Philippines?

Resources:

Cognitive Crucible Podcast Episodes Mentioned
Unrestricted Warfare by Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui
The Cypher Brief
Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman
Screenplay: The Foundations of Screenwriting by Syd Field
Save the Cat Story Structure: Definition and Beat Sheet by Blake Snyder

Link to full show notes and resources

Guest Bio:

Austin Branch founded Crescent Bridge to help serve the Information technical and cognitive needs of the Federal Government. Additionally, Austin joined ARLIS to help support the evolution of the Defense and U.S. Government Operations in the Information Environment (OIE) enterprise. Previously, Austin served as OIE Technology & Strategy at Secretary of the Air Force Directorate for Concepts, Development and Management (Exec IPA) after several years in the private sector at COLSA Corporation as the Executive Director for Information Strategies and Programs (2015-2021) after serving 30 years in Federal service as an Army Officer and Senior Civilian. He was commissioned as an Infantry Officer in 1986 from The Citadel, Charleston S.C. and went on to serve in multiple Command and Staff positions in conflict and in peace becoming the Army’s first Information Operations Officer. Austin pioneered military operations in the information environment in key leadership positions in the Army, Joint Special Operations Command, Joint Staff, EUCOM, and deployed Joint and multinational Task Force Organizations across the globe. Upon retirement from the Army, Austin joined the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence as the Deputy Director and Chief of Operations for the Defense Policy Analysis Office with oversight of National special plans and technical operations. In 2008 was selected as a Defense Intelligence Senior Leader as Senior Advisor for Defense Information Operations focused on oversight, policy and support for Service and Joint Information Operations, and associated Special Access programs. In 2010, Austin was selected by the Secretary of Defense to lead the Information Operations and Military Information Support Defense Enterprise as the first Senior Director for this mission area in the Office of Policy and Special Operations and Low Intensity Conflict. In this capacity, Austin was DOD’s senior representative for IO, MISO, EW and special program oversight, policy and assessments. In 2013, Austin was selected by the Director for the National Counter-Terrorism Center and the DNI to establish and lead a new organization to address Domestic Counter Terrorism, Counter Violent Extremism, and Counter Terrorism Cyber Strategy and Policy in support of the National Security Council. In this capacity, he also served as the National Co-lead for countering ISIS propaganda and influence and associated IPC lead strategist for National Security Council. Austin is also one of the founder’s of a Non-profit, Information Professionals Association (IPA). IPA is a professional organization established to serve the interests of the broader Information community worldwide and for issues related to Cognitive Security. Austin also served on the Defense Science Board summer 2019 study focused on great power competition in the Information Environment and was recently was selected to join the University of Maryland Advanced Research Laboratory for Intelligence & Security (ARLIS) to help lead development of their Cognitive Security & Information Portfolio. He also serves on various Advisory Board(s) and professional associations. Austin and his wife, Carol live in Bluffton SC and have three children. They have two serving in active duty in the Army and one in Medical School at Icahn School of Medicine, Mt Sinai, NY.

Dave Pitts is a senior national security professional, former CIA executive, and veteran with over four decades of experience in challenging and critical missions, ranging from intelligence operations, counterterrorism and special operations to great power competition. Dave served as the Assistant Director of CIA for South and Central Asia, Chief of National Resources Division, senior leadership positions in the Counterterrorism Center—including in the strategic communications space—and led CIA’s two largest Field Stations. Dave has a proven track record of leading large and diverse teams, building lasting partnerships, integrating innovative technologies, and delivering results in high-stakes and high-pressure situations. Dave is a thought leader, Cipher Brief Expert and a frequent writer and commentator on terrorism, great power competition, the gray zone, cognitive warfare and emerging global issues. Dave is a co-founder of The Cipher Briefs Gray Zone Group.

Joe Miller, Senior Executive Service, is currently the Deputy Commander for Support at the US Army Special Operations Command, headquartered at Ft Bragg, N.C. Prior to his assignment to Ft Bragg, Joe was the J7 Director of Joint Training and Innovation at US NORAD/NORTHCOM at Peterson, AFB, Co and first SES assignment was the J5 Director, Policy, Strategy, Plans and Futures at US Special Operations Command at Mac Dill AFB, Fl. Joe is a retired US Army Colonel. He has led and Commanded platoons, troops, detachments, a Battalion task force and a Brigade. He has served and operated in western Europe, the Balkans, the Middle East, SW Asia and throughout the Americas. He is a graduate of the University of Florida, Bachelor of Science in Business Administration with Honors, US Army Command and General Staff College and the School of Advanced Military Studies (Master of Military Arts and Sciences), an Army War College Fellowship. He earned a Master’s Degree in Operations Research from the Air Force Institute of Technology. He is a life Member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Joe is married with one son.

About: The Information Professionals Association (IPA) is a non-profit organization dedicated to exploring the role of information activities, such as influence and cognitive security, within the national security sector and helping to bridge the divide between operations and research. Its goal is to increase interdisciplinary collaboration between scholars and practitioners and policymakers with an interest in this domain.

For more information, please contact us at communications@information-professionals.org.

Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn.

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