In this book, Tetlock and Gardner present the results of the Good Judgment Project, a massive forecasting tournament that identified a small group of 'superforecasters' who are exceptionally good at predicting future events. The authors explain that good forecasting does not require powerful computers or arcane methods but involves gathering evidence from various sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. The book uses stories of forecasting successes and failures, as well as interviews with high-level decision makers, to illustrate these principles and demonstrate how anyone can improve their forecasting abilities[3][4][5].
In this conclusion to the Age of Madness trilogy, Joe Abercrombie depicts a world in the midst of the Great Change, where the Breakers and Burners have seized power, and the old order is being torn down. The story follows characters like Citizen Brock, Citizeness Savine, King Orso, and Rikke as they navigate the chaos, destruction, and political upheaval. The book explores themes of governance, survival, and the complexities of human behavior during times of revolution and societal collapse. Known for his vivid characterizations, dark humor, and intense action sequences, Abercrombie delivers a morally complex and gripping conclusion to the trilogy.
In this conclusion to the Age of Madness trilogy, Joe Abercrombie depicts a world in the midst of the Great Change, where the Breakers and Burners have seized power, and the old order is being torn down. The story follows characters like Citizen Brock, Citizeness Savine, King Orso, and Rikke as they navigate the chaos, destruction, and political upheaval. The book explores themes of governance, survival, and the complexities of human behavior during times of revolution and societal collapse. Known for his vivid characterizations, dark humor, and intense action sequences, Abercrombie delivers a morally complex and gripping conclusion to the trilogy.
Erik is joined on this episode by Scott Page (@Scott_E_Page), professor at the University of Michigan and author of The Model Thinker.
They talk about:
* The idea of the wisdom of crowds.
* Why cognitive diversity is important for a wise crowd.
* Whether individual experts or groups of ordinary people make better predictions.
* Which mental models VCs should be using.
* Why Scott says “mastery is knowing when to use the right mental model at the right time.”
* Why, if you’re watching basketball, you may as well be watching people roll a die.
... and much more.
Thanks for listening — if you like what you hear, please review us on your favorite podcast platform.
Check us out on the web at villageglobal.vc or get in touch with us on Twitter @villageglobal.
Venture Stories is brought to you by Village Global, is hosted by co-founder and partner, Erik Torenberg and is produced by Brett Bolkowy.
Village Global Podcast 
