Creating more value than taking and being adaptable are essential for successful investing and team culture.
Complexity investing focuses on adaptability and embraces uncertainty, challenging traditional economic models.
Resilient businesses prioritize adaptability, vertical integration, and a balance between resilience and optionality in investments.
Deep dives
Brinton Johns' Background and Journey in the Investing Industry
Brinton Johns, co-founder of NTS Capital, shares his background and early experiences in the investing industry. He discusses his diverse educational background and how he started working for Janus Capital. He highlights the pivotal moment when he discovered his passion for grassroots research and independent work. Johns also mentions his collaboration with Brad Slingerlend and the turning point in their investing philosophy.
The Essential Ingredients for Successful Investing and Team Culture
Johns explains the important factors for successful investing and creating a high-functioning team. He emphasizes the significance of having a well-defined investing philosophy and a tight process. He also stresses the importance of fostering a culture of trust, psychological safety, and open communication within the team. Johns believes that long-term thinking, adaptability, and a focus on creating more value than taking are essential ingredients for successful investing and team culture.
Complexity Investing: Embracing Uncertainty
Johns introduces the concept of complexity investing and its key tenets. He emphasizes the acceptance that the future cannot be predicted and focuses on adaptability instead. He discusses the importance of non-zero sum thinking, where companies aim to create more value than they take. Johns also highlights the limitations of traditional economic models and the significance of understanding complex adaptive systems. He explains the need for holding investments with a looser hand and embracing uncertainty as part of complexity investing.
Identifying Resilient Businesses and Assessing Optionality
Johns discusses the characteristics of resilient businesses and the importance of adaptability. He explains the value of vertical integration and how it enables companies to be more nimble and adaptable. Johns also emphasizes the significance of understanding the potential total addressable market (TAM) and whether a company has network effects. He highlights the need to assess the potential range of outcomes and consider the balance between resilience and optionality when evaluating investments.
Graduating Companies from Optionality to Resilient Investments
Johns discusses the process of companies transitioning from optionality to resilient positions in the portfolio. He explains that the graduation is based on factors such as the narrowing range of outcomes, growing recurring revenue, and increased market presence. He highlights examples such as Lamb Research, where more predictable business models and recurring revenue sources led to the company becoming a resilient investment. Additionally, Johns discusses the importance of ongoing assessment and the potential risks of overconcentration on resilient companies.
Brinton Johns is a co-founder of NZS Capital, a US-based investment boutique applying lessons from nature to invest in companies with the capacity to thrive in a complex adaptive world. As the future is inherently unpredictable, Brinton and his colleagues believe it is best to focus on adaptable and innovative businesses that create more value than they take, whilst structuring the portfolio to exhibit both resilience and optionality.
Those interested in learning more about NZS's Complexity investing framework should read their whitepaper (https://www.nzscapital.com/news/complexity).
Show notes:
[1:20] Brinton talks about how he got into the investing industry and his career at Janus Capital [5:32] The benefits of focus, a defined investment philosophy and a flat team structure [8:05] The genesis of NZS' Complexity Investing framework [9:51] The key tenets of Complexity Investing and the importance of being adaptable and creating more value than you take [13:37] Structuring the portfolio for resilience and optionality [18:01] Psychological safety and empowering creativity by being allowed to make mistakes [20:27] Texas Instruments as an example of an adaptable and resilient business providing oxygen in a digital age [22:44] Testing for adaptability and resilience at Texas Instruments [25:08] Assessing the quality of people, culture, the nature of a company's growth and valuation [28:47] Great allocators versus great operators [30:48] Understanding the asymmetry of optional investments [32:57] The power of vertical integration in disrupting horizontal incumbents [35:06] Spreading bets in the tail of the portfolio [36:15] A culture of candour for limiting biases and recognising mistakes [39:04] Companies that graduate from being optional to resilient and vice versa [41:02] Investing in optional businesses allows for greater mental plasticity [42:31] Web3.0 [44:00] Be curious and open-minded
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