This interview with Jonny Mathews explores why he believes we aren’t headed for a recession, how real consumption will likely drive Q3 GDP higher, and why he thinks unemployment will moderate. We also discuss the market opportunities he’s seeing, hitting home run trades, and much more.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:45) Are We Headed For A Recession?

(03:09) Income Growth Is Driving Consumption

(05:45) Household Savings

(07:44) Unemployment Will Moderate

(15:40) Credit Markets

(19:48) Permissionless Ad

(20:48) Job Market Revisions

(23:47) Opportunities In Fixed Income

(27:32) Trading Interest Rates

(30:53) Will Inflation Continue To Fall?

(35:42) Labor Market Data

(39:31) Opportunities In The UK

(50:30) Home Run Trades

(52:55) The Gold Market

(55:33) China Outlook

(01:01:24) S&P 500 Earnings

(01:05:29) AI & Productivity

(01:09:29) Super Macro Note

(01:12:05) Jonny's Trading Experience

(01:18:13) Stocks Over Bonds

(01:20:27) Cumulative Personal Savings

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

002 - Getting Started Is Hard!