Doom Debates Noah Smith vs. Liron Shapira — Will AI spare our lives AND our jobs?
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Jan 5, 2026 
Noah Smith, an economist and popular Substack writer, shares his optimistic vision of AI's future. He believes rather than causing extinction, AI will generate plentiful high-paying jobs. The discussion explores the probabilities of AI-induced catastrophe versus transformation. Noah argues AI could enable existing threats rather than create new ones. They also debate the potential for harmful AI persuasion, the risk of a dominant AI, and how to preserve human livelihoods amidst evolving technology. Optimism shines through as he advocates for resource policies to benefit humanity.
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Technology Rewrites Human Identity
- Noah Smith argues that AI-driven cultural change may be inevitable and could make future humans unrecognizable.
- He frames that transformation as not necessarily bad but potentially melancholic for those who value historical continuity.
Distinguish Extinction From Cultural Loss
- Noah gives a low near-term extinction probability but high long-run change probability.
- He separates complete extinction from cultural evaporation and treats both as distinct outcomes.
AI Amplifies Known Catastrophes
- Both guests agree AI can facilitate large catastrophes (bio or nuclear) even if not directly inventing new kill mechanisms.
- Noah assigns ~10% to a halving catastrophe by 2050 combining bio and nuclear risks.
